Bold Box Office Predictions: August 2-4

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Notable Openings This Weekend: The Smurfs 2, 2 Guns

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Smurfedy Smurf Smurfe-roo! The Smurfs 2 is coming to town!! And leave it to the Smurfs to be another annoying movie to open on a Wednesday to make my life more difficult. The original Smurfs did well, but it wasn’t an absolute monster. So far the Wednesday numbers are actually similar to what Turbo did a couple weeks ago, which certainly isn’t a good sign for those little blue bastards. I’m hoping kids don’t care about the Smurfs as much as last time, but I’m sure this will make just enough to money to justify a third one.

The other big opening is 2 Guns starring Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg. If you were to ask me a few years ago whether a movie with the caliber of these two names would do well, I would have said “Absolutely!” But in today’s climate, we know star power is significantly decreasing every year. Although, Washington did release a similar type movie last year called Safe House with Ryan Reynolds that opened to a nice $40 million. I’m sure this was mostly on Washington’s name, because it certainly wasn’t Reynolds. Keep in mind though, that film came out in February with much less competition.

I don’t think Mark Wahlberg really does anything here either. I’m sure people will scream “Ted!” at the top of their lungs, but come on, that was all Seth MacFarlane. Wahlberg’s last two movies were Broken City and Pain & Gain, opening at around $8 million and $20 million respectively, and the latter had the Rock. Any more questions?

How Will It All Break Down…

The Smurfs will win the day, but finish below the original film’s opening weekend of around $35 million. Denzel can will 2 Guns to just over $20 million, but with ‘meh’ reviews and little buzz, that’s about it. It finishes behind The Wolverine.

TOP 5 BOX OFFICE PREDICTION

1) The Smurfs 2 — $28 Million
2) The Wolverine — $24 Million
3) 2 Guns — $21.5 Million
4) The Conjuring — $12 Million
5) Despicable Me 2 — $9.5 Million

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.