Bold Box Office Predictions: August 16-19

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Notable Openings This Weekend: Lee Daniels’ The Butler, Jobs, Kick-Ass 2, Paranoia

Oh boy, another crowded weekend to predict the box office. While we got four new openings this weekend, this is really a battle between third rate superheroes and a butler. Talk about two different audiences. It’s going to be a tight one, but let’s talk about the sequel first.

Kick-Ass 2 poster

The first Kick-Ass was a nice little low budget hit, bringing in almost $20 million its opening weekend. The character of Hit-Girl got a lot of buzz, there’s a lot of goodwill from the original, and this one’s got Jim Carrey … who’s not promoting it. Yeah, a few months ago Jim Carrey said he couldn’t promote this film due to the nature of the violence. I don’t think that’s going to hurt this to much, and because of how well liked the original was, I think Kick-Ass 2 does a little better than it’s predecessor.

The other big opening is Lee Daniels’ The Butler, and if you’re wondering why the director is in the title, it’s kind of funny. Warner Brothers has a 1916 silent short film called The Butler, so that’s why it had to be changed. Hey, you never know…maybe Warner Brothers is planning to re-release that film in IMAX 3D, and they don’t want any confusion. Getting to this butler movie though, it seems like all of Hollywood is in it, and I’m sure everyone will have one line and then walk out. But regardless, the trailer has that emotional TV movie feel that I think will bring in older people who normally don’t see a lot of movies. It should do some good business.

The other two openings I don’t see making many waves. I’m surprised this Jobs movie isn’t getting more buzz. With how annoying and in your face Apple lovers are, you would think they would be knocking at your door telling you to see this movie right after they gloat about how cool their new iPhone is. To be honest, I think the casting of Ashton Kutcher was a bad idea. While he looks good in the role, and will probably give a good performance, I think a lot of people took that casting as “Oh, they aren’t taking this seriously.”

The other new opening is Paranoia…nobody cares.

How Will It All Break Down…

It will be pretty close, but Forest Whitaker wins the day over Kick-Ass. Lee Daniels’ The Butler simply has a wider appeal, but both movies should do solid business. Jobs just misses out on the top 5.

TOP 5 BOX OFFICE PREDICTION

1) Lee Daniels’ The Butler – $25.5 Million
2) Kick-Ass 2 – $23.5 Million
3) We’re the Millers – $14 Million
4) Elysium – $13 Million
5) Planes – $11.5 Million

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.