Bold Box Office Predictions: August 1-3, 2014

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Notable Openings This Weekend: Get on Up, Guardians of the Galaxy

When I looked at the schedule at the beginning of the summer, I had this weekend pinned as the most difficult to predict It’s been talked about ad nauseam how much of a risk Guardians of the Galaxy is for Marvel studios. Will it work? How strong is the Marvel brand? Will this connect with a mainstream audience? This movie has been marketed to the point where I feel like Marvel has come into my home at 4am for the past three months whispering “Guardians of the Galaxy opens August 1st.” To be honest, I’m thrilled this film is finally opening just so everybody can shut up about it. Aside from raccoons and trees, we also have James Brown this weekend, so there’s plenty to discuss. For the first time in two weeks, summer movie season is finally back!

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I’ve been on record as not liking the Marvel cinematic universe. I find it obnoxious. Having said that, I did like Captain America: The Winter Solider. Guardians of the Galaxy is going to be the film that either sucks me back in, or has me check out completely. I have absolutely loathed the trailers. I know. I’m the one grumpy gus who has his arms folded. But I am far and few between, because people are going bananas for every bit of advertising that has come out for this film, including the 956 character posters. I think I was on a Guardians of the Galaxy poster. Having said that though, is this the type of hype that will permeate into the general audience, or is it just the Comic-Con crowd over selling it loudly. Will this be another Scott Pilgrim vs. The World?

For months, I’ve been saying this film could open anywhere from $30 to $70 Million. I really had no idea how people were going to take this. In the past two weeks though, it’s pretty clear this thing is going to explode. Positive reviews left and right. Typical over reaction on Twitter of “This is the greatest movie ever made.” I think we’ve had five or six “This is the greatest movie ever!” declarations this year. Despite it’s weird concept, it just has too much going for it not to clean up, including two previous weeks of absolute crap competition. It has the entire box office to itself. I didn’t put Guardians of the Galaxy on my top ten summer box office predictions, and I’m going to look like an absolute idiot because of it.

As you bathe in the glory that is Guardians of the Galaxy though, don’t forget to “Get on Up” with Chadwick Boseman as James Brown. While not playing in as many theaters, Get on Up should have a respectable opening. People are glowing about Boseman’s performance, and the marketing is rightfully playing up the director of The Help angle. The quality of the film worries me a little bit in that you would think this would be an Oscar type release, but it’s being buried in the summer. Nevertheless, everybody loves James Brown, and there will be a lot of interest for this one.

How Will It All Break Down…

Guardians of the Galaxy will destroy this weekend, and when it does, there will truly be no stopping Marvel. They will be able to do whatever the hell they want.

TOP 5 BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS

1) Guardians of the Galaxy — $77 Million
2) Lucy — $22.5 Million
3) Get On Up — $15.5 Million
4) Hercules — $13.5 Million
5) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes — $9 Million

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.