Bold Box Office Prediction: August 8-10, 2014

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Notable Openings This Weekend: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, The Hundred-Foot Journey, Into the Storm, Step Up All In

Holy matza ball soup, we got a lot to cover. I know you’re all dying to see if Step Up All In can dance its way over The Hundred-Foot Journey. Yeah, I can’t even say that with a straight face. This is going to be a photo finish between the challenger (Ninja Turtles), and the reigning box office champion (Guardians of the Galaxy). This just goes to show how ridiculous summer movie season can be. You have a film in Guardians of the Galaxy that is universally adored, has amazing reviews, box office records left and right, and it still might not finish #1 in its second weekend. Meanwhile, the Ninja Turtles are a known commodity that have been around for 30 years, but the early reaction could not be more polar opposite. Alright, enough vamping. Let’s get to it – the biggest box office death match of the summer!

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Michael Bay. Aliens. Megan Fox. Ninja Turtles. This is the concoction that created the most negative buzz for a film that I can remember in a long time. As soon as Michael Bay mentioned the Turtle origins were now going to be alien, the turtle fandom went completely bat shit crazy. And even though they scrapped the whole alien thing, and even make a joke about it in the trailer, the negativity was already set in stone. There was no recovering. Turtle fans are not only expecting a looming disaster, they’ve resigned themselves to it.

While I’ve personally been somewhat hopeful about the film, I can’t find one person who is all out excited. Combine that with the absolutely abysmal reviews that are bordering on Transformers: Age of Extinction territory, and this movie is set up to be the bomb of the summer. Despite all the negative reviews, all the fear, all the crap and mud that has been flung at this movie, I still believe it’s going to do well. Why? It’s Ninja Turtles. We can’t get away from it. Even all the Turtle fans who are planning to jump off the Technodrome after the film ends, you are still going to see it. It’s been heavily marketed, and even though it has the unfortunate pleasure of opening one week after the behemoth that is Guardians of the Galaxy, I think we all still root for the Turtles. Bottom-line – if this movie bombs, we won’t see the Ninja Turtles on the big screen again for a long, long time.

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Oh, there’s other stuff opening too. Step Up All In will do typical Step Up numbers. Whatever. The Hundred-Foot Journey will be fine, as I’m sure it will draw in an older/snootier movie crowd that have been bombarded with Guardians, Turtles, Apes, and Mutants all summer. Then we have Into the Storm. Are you kidding me with this? Who’s bright idea was it to open some hackneyed run of the mill disaster movie in August? I’m sorry, this isn’t 1996. You can’t trot out some generic action movie like Twister in today’s summer environment, which is nothing but sequels and franchises. Even Tom Cruise and Dwayne Johnson crashed and burned, and you think this is going to do well? This movie should be opening in January. Into the Storm doesn’t make the top five.

How Will It All Break Down…

While Guardians of the Galaxy is going to have an impressive second weekend, I’m going to call what I guess is the upset. Ninja Turtles will pull it out. I know it doesn’t feel that way, but I just think the Turtle name is too big not to eke out a victory. If they lose though, prepare yourself for 900 variations of “The Guardians Shell Shock the Turtles” type headlines. Ugh.

TOP 5 BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS

1) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles — $52 Million
2) Guardians of the Galaxy — $49 Million
3) The Hundred-Foot Journey — $10.5 Million
4) Step Up All In — $10 Million
5) Lucy — $9 Million

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.