Breaking Down the Emmy Awards Nominees: Supporting Actor

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Check out yesterday’s column Supporting Actress.

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Fred Armisen as Various Characters on Portlandia

LK: Portlandia is one delightfully funny gem that unfortunately not enough people talk about. It’s an unbelievably weird program that really only works because its stars Fred Armisen and Carrie Brownstein are brilliantly bizarre. Armisen was incredible on Saturday Night Live but unfortunately his television career beyond that has been very under the radar. I’m ecstatic he has this recognition. It likely won’t be more than that though. Chance of winning: Low.

MP: Portlandia is so hit or miss. But when it’s good, it’s SO good. Fred Armisen is probably one of the most underrated SNL alums, and I’m happy for him to be nominated. Chance of winning: Low.

Photo: Chris Hornbecker/IFC
Photo: Chris Hornbecker/IFC

Andre Braugher as Captain Ray Holt on Brooklyn Nine-Nine

LK: Brooklyn Nine-Nine was easily one of the stand out shows of the 2013-2014 broadcast season. It broke all expectations of a police focused sitcom and it propelled Andy Samberg to comedic star status. Both him and the show went up with surprise Golden Globe wins too. Alas, the Academy is less of a fan, and Braugher is the only nominee. He’s absolutely hilarious though and his inclusion will clearly generate buzz for the show, but ultimately it won’t result in a win. Chance of winning: Average.

MP: YES. Yesyesyes. Honestly, everyone on this show deserves an award, and I maybe would have preferred this nomination to go to Terry Crews. But Andre Braugher has taken the art of deadpan comedy to level 300 on Brooklyn Nine-Nine, and he definitely deserves to take home the award. He won’t, though. He most certainly won’t. Eggplant emoji. Chance of winning: Low.

Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy on Modern Family

LK: If there is a category that loves Modern Family, it’s supporting actor. This is the fifth year the show’s been in contention, and yet these are nominations 15 and 16. It’s absurd! Ty Burrell is a regular face, even winning in 2011. His past win alone makes gives him a good shot of winning again. Chance of winning: High.

MP: See what I wrote for Julie Bowen yesterday. Lather, rinse, repeat. He is great, but it’s time to step aside for fresher talent. Chance of winning: High.

Adam Driver as Adam Sackler on Girls

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LK: Girls has really propelled Adam Driver into the stratosphere. Completely unknown before 2012, he’s now appeared in the hit Coen Brother’s film Inside Llewyn Davis, Lincoln, and is set to be in Star Wars Episode VII. Girls is easily the best thing to ever happen to him. Will he take this award home on his second nomination? I don’t think so, but he’s definitely not at the bottom. Chance of winning: Average.

MP: I’m not a huge fan of Girls, but I do rather like Adam Driver. I think he does a great job with what is sometimes not so great material. Chance of winning: Average.

Jesse Tyler Ferguson as Mitchell Pritchett on Modern Family

LK: Five nominations, no wins. What else is there to say? The fact that he’s in Modern Family makes Jesse Tyler Ferguson a front runner but Burrell definitely outpaces him. Chance of winning: High, but not as high as his co-star.

MP: It seems kind of arbitrary to have Ty Burrell and Jesse Tyler Ferguson in this category, but not Eric Stonestreet. Much like Sofia Vergara was overlooked in the the female category. Just an observation – I agree that Burrell will always beat out Ferguson. Chance of winning: Average.

Tony Hale as Gary Walsh on Veep

LK: If Modern Family is a freight train of comedy, Tony Hale is a cement wall. He prevented their fourth consecutive win last year and it was beyond deserving. Will he take it this year? His star has only continued to rise on Veep and it seems even more likely this will be a two-time victory. Chance of winning: Very high.

MP: Veep has become a favorite amongst Emmy voters, and they do like to give out awards twice in a row. I don’t watch Veep religiously, but Tony Hale is hilarious on it. Chance of winning: Very high.

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Luke’s Pick: Tony Hale, but wouldn’t Andre Braugher be nice? If only.

Marla’s Pick: I’d kill for Andre Braugher to win this one. But I agree with Luke, most likely Tony Hale.

Who Marla Thinks Should Have Been Nominated: I already mentioned it, but hands down Terry Crews on Brooklyn Nine-Nine. Also I find it incredible that Nick Offerman has never been nominated for his portrayal of Ron Swanson in Parks and Recreation.

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Jim Carter as Charles Carson on Downton Abbey

LK: Third nomination in a row for Jim Carter but no victories. Will this be his year? I really don’t think so. Not only do I have nothing to base his performance on (I don’t watch Downton Abbey), this show hasn’t been that successful since it moved out of the miniseries categories. Chance of winning: Low.

MP: I know nothing aside from his odds based on past nominations, and it doesn’t look good. Chance of winning: Low.

Josh Charles as Will Gardner on The Good Wife

LK: Josh Charles was nominated for this award in 2011 and has since gone unnoticed until this year. What this tells me is that he was good enough to get a nom back then but was pushed aside for other, more prolific stars. Unless he really dominated in the recent season of The Good Wife, I don’t think he has any real chance of taking this home. Chance of winning: Low.

MP: It seems odd that The Good Wife got this many nominations, and yet was overlooked for Outstanding Series. Seems indicative of the Academy’s state of mind regarding the show. Chance of winning: Low.

Photo Credit: HBO
Photo Credit: HBO

Peter Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister on Game of Thrones

LK: Peter Dinklage is basically the only Game of Thrones actor the Academy actually likes. This is his fourth consecutive nomination, and he actually took the prize in 2011 which shocked everyone. He hasn’t had much luck since, but seeing as his nomination episode is the incredible “The Law of Gods and Men,” he has a solid chance of winning again for that epic speech alone. Chance of winning: Very High.

MP: Peter Dinklage was one of two things I actually enjoyed about Game of Thrones (the other being Emilia Clarke). He’s pretty cool. Chance of winning: High.

Mandy Patinkin as Saul Berenson on Homeland

LK: Homeland is an odd beast. After dominating television with its first season, the show has since dropped in quality. The second season only won two Emmys despite the eight nominations, and now there are only two nominations for this year. Many fans consider the third season to be the lowest point (right now). If anything, Mandy Patinkin’s nomination was an excuse to keep Homeland in, but I don’t expect anything more. If there is a dark horse though, Patinkin will always be it. Chance of winning: Average.

MP: I love Mandy Patinkin, but nobody, and I mean nobody, deserves an award for the work they did on Homeland season 3. I couldn’t even get through the entire season. Chance of Winning: Low.

Aaron Paul as Jesse Pinkman on Breaking Bad

LK: An easy front runner for sure. Aaron Paul absolutely crushed the final season of Breaking Bad and that can translate to his third victory. Quite honestly, this is the year of Breaking Bad, and I’m entirely expecting him to take this home one final time. Chance of winning: Very High.

MP: As I mentioned yesterday for Anna Gunn, in the final season of Breaking Bad, Aaron Paul (aka America’s sweetbitch) is sure to take home this Emmy. Chance of Winning: Very High.

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Jon Voight as Mickey Donovan on Ray Donovan

LK: Jon Voight is something else entirely. Ray Donovan is an excellent show, but no one sang the praises of Voight despite him being an incredible actor. Yet somehow, someway, he bested Aaron Paul for a Golden Globe earlier this year which set the internet on fire. Can he do the same again for an Emmy? I really want to say no, but that Golden Globe gives him a boost no one expected. Chance of winning: High.

MP: Not only have I not seen Ray Donovan, but I’ve legitimately heard nothing about it. Which is a difficult task for someone who watches as much TV as I do, and pays attention to what’s going on in TV as much as I do. So I’m kind of astounded by this nomination. Chance of winning: Average.

Luke’s Pick: I’m sticking with my Aaron Paul guns here. He deserves it.

Marla’s Pick: I’m 95% certain Aaron Paul has this in the bag.

Who Marla Thinks Should Have Been Nominated: Jordan Gavaris as Felix in Orphan Black.

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