Bold Box Office Predictions: June 26-28, 2015
Notable Openings This Weekend: Ted 2, Max
This is it. The summer movie you’ve been waiting for. In all the previews and countdowns leading into the summer, this is the movie that has reached a level of hype that, quite frankly, makes me very uncomfortable. Max. Yeah, I’m obviously kidding. Talk about feeding a film to the wolves. Geez. But we’ll get to Max. It’s going to be an interesting weekend. We got two strong holdovers, and a highly anticipated sequel. Will Jurassic World hold serve? Will Inside Out gain enough word of mouth to vault it to #1? Or will Ted smoke his way to the top? Let’s dissect and analyze.
Like a lot of comedies, it’s always best to capitalize immediately after the success of the original. The Hangover Part II opened two short years after the first movie, and despite atrocious word of mouth, it still managed to clean up opening weekend. Ted 2 waited an extra year. Out of all the movies I’ve predicted this year, I’ve been really struggling with Ted 2. Ted feels like one of those films that hit at the right time back in 2012. It had the Family Guy brand attached to it, but it felt original, and the previews looked great. When I stick my finger in the wind to gauge the temperature for Ted 2, I’m just not feeling the buzz. The previews have been fine, but it feels like an afterthought. The tagline on the poster “Ted is coming, again” also sucks. I’m sorry, I just have to get that off my chest. You can’t do better then that? Do marketing companies not care about movie posters anymore? They suck. Sorry for the tangent. Seth MacFarlane is also still trying to wash the stench away from A Million Ways to Die in the West. Man, that was a rough one. I’m sensing an overall “meh” attitude for Ted 2. Then again, I wouldn’t be completely shocked if this blew the original out of the water.
The real problem is that Ted 2 is going up against two heavyweights. What Jurassic World is doing to the box office right now is just silly, and you also got Inside Out, which people are losing their minds for, which also over performed last week. The film made over $90 Million at the box office, and it still wasn’t #1?! Ted 2 may very well be the victim of attrition.
Then we have Max. It won’t do well, but its budget is probably a couple of quarters, so whatever.
HOW WILL IT ALL BREAK DOWN…
This is going to come down to the wire between all three films. Ted 2 is probably looking at similar numbers to the original, and that probably means a second place finish to Jurassic World. Jurassic World is on to much of a high right now. Had Ted 2 opened away from the summer melee, it could have really cleaned up. Inside Out has an outside shot because its drop off should be low. Max is out of the top five, in case you care.
1. Jurassic World – $58 Million
2. Ted 2 – $55.5 Million
3. Inside Out – $55 Million
4. Spy – $7.5 Million
5. San Andreas – $4.5 Million
Daniel Cohen is the Film Editor for Pop-Break. Aside from reviews, Daniel does a weekly box office predictions column, and also contributes monthly Top Tens and Op-Ed’s on all things film. Daniel is a graduate of Bates College with a degree in English, and also studied Screenwriting at UCLA. He can also be read on www.movieshenanigans.com. His movie crush is Jessica Rabbit. Follow him on Twitter @dcohenwriter.