Box Office Predictions: Logan is Going to Slice the Competition

Box Office Predictions: Logan is Going to Slice the Competition

Notable Openings This Weekend: Logan, The Shack, Before I Fall

Before we get into the Logan of it all, no box office predictions last week, but certainly a huge kudos to Get Out for a whopping $33+ Million on a $4.5 Million production budget (via box office mojo).

With a current 99% on Rotten Tomatoes (We know who ruined it. We don’t need to mention him by name), the “tomato effect,” as we’ve seen before, certainly helped this one. Word of mouth is a fitting topic when talking about the Goliath that opens this weekend. Before we get to that, let’s break a record on how much time spent on the other two wide release movies.

Before I Fall. The Shack. Nobody cares. The Shack opens in more theaters, and should barely crack the top five. Whatever. The end.

It’s always a big moment in the calendar year, but here we go – the first live action superhero movie of 2017, and by all accounts, it’s already the best. High critical reaction. Twitter explosion. Oscar buzz. Believe me, I’ve been scouring the internet, and I can’t find one point of contention about this movie. If you’re out there, let us know:

Exactly. You can check out our review of the film. Tommy Tracy loved it. I love it. The movie is a berserker freight train. BUT, it’s also Rated-R. So, how will it fare at the box office?

As we learned from Deadpool, it seems there’s a thirst for Rated-R superhero movies. Now certainly the R-Rating can’t work for everyone, but Wolverine is a character who definitely falls into the R category. When we look at Wolverine’s last solo outing, The Wolverine (2013), it didn’t exactly overwhelm domestically at the box office ($132 Million+). The Wolverine came out at a time when X-Men was just starting to get its mojo back, and hadn’t yet exploded with Days of Future Past in 2014. Even though X-Men: Apocalypse disappointed slightly, it was still a hefty haul, and that was with poor word of mouth. This movie is the exact opposite.

Aside from the positive word of mouth, that first trailer did a phenomenal job of selling people on this as a very, very different superhero movie, almost to the point where it felt like an independent film. The Johnny Cash song really grabbed people.

The biggest reason why this is going to clean up though is Hugh Jackman. People really buy into the whole “one last ride” motif. It’s a big reason the last Harry Potter movie has the highest gross out of that series. Everyone knows this is Hugh Jackman’s last turn. He’s been playing the character for seventeen years. We all want to say goodbye.

HOW WILL IT ALL BREAK DOWN…

While Deadpool made a RIDICULOUS $132+ Million its opening weekend, don’t expect Logan to do that. You can’t discount how good the marketing was for that film, and the fact that it had a fun/comedy aspect brought in a lot of bucks. Having said that, Logan is going to dominate, and I don’t think it’s crazy to think it could reach the $100 Million mark. For a dour, serious Rated-R superhero film, that would be astonishing.

1. Logan – $88 Million

2. Get Out – $21 Million

3. The LEGO Batman Movie – $11 Million

4. The Shack – $6.5 Million

5. John Wick Chapter 2 – $5.5 Million

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow’s fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.