Bold Box Office Predictions: Thanksgiving Weekend 2014

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Notable Openings This Weekend: Horrible Bosses 2, Penguins of Madagascar

Gobble, gobble. Happy Turkey Day! Stuffing. Yadda, yadda, yadda, all the Thanksgiving clichés. Now that we got that out of our system, let’s talk box office. This is one of those box office prediction weekends that drives me crazy. Two new movies opened on a Wednesday. It’s Thanksgiving weekend.  There’s a strong holdover. I don’t know what the hell’s going on! My predictions will be a mess, that’s for sure. Speaking of holdovers, let’s start there.

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It’s hard to believe an opening weekend of nearly $122 Million (the biggest of 2014) is considered a disappointment, but that is indeed the case for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part I.  I have no idea how this happened. It’s not like it’s coming off a disappointing sequel – everyone loved Catching Fire. Was it because the reviews weren’t up to snuff?  Were people turned off by the whole “Part I” thing, and just wanted to wait for the last one to come out next year? Whatever the case may be, even with its disappointment, Katniss and the gang should still hold strong at #1, but it does have decent competition.

Even though Big Hero 6 is still out in full force, Penguins of Madagascar should clean up the kid market all weekend. It’s part of a proven franchise, and everybody loves penguins in their movie. I have nothing else to say about this film. I once did a report on penguins in either 2nd or 3rd grade, so there you go. Moving right along…

The first Horrible Bosses was one of those “surprise hit comedies,” so of course they Hangover-ed this thing pretty damn fast and cranked out a sequel. The reviews are horrible, but nobody cares.  All the major players are back, plus Christoph Waltz and Chris Pine. This will be a nice option for the adult crowd over Thanksgiving weekend, and should do similar numbers as the original, maybe even better. They’ve been marketing the shit out of this one.

HOW WILL IT ALL BREAK DOWN…

It should be a packed box office all around, but even with a disappointing opening weekend, The Hunger Games will still defend its crown.

TOP 5 BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS

1) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part I — $60 Million

2) Penguins of Madagascar — $45 Million

3) Horrible Bosses 2 — $23 Million

4) Big Hero 6 — $16.5 Million

5) Interstellar — $13.5 Million

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Daniel Cohen is the Film Editor for Pop-Break. Aside from reviews, Daniel does a weekly box office predictions column, and also contributes monthly Top Tens and Op-Ed’s on all things film. Daniel is a graduate of Bates College with a degree in English, and also studied Screenwriting at UCLA. He can also be read on www.movieshenanigans.com. His movie crush is Jessica Rabbit. Follow him on Twitter @dcohenwriter.

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Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.