Bold Box Office Predictions: January 9-11, 2015

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Bold Box Office Predictions: January 9-11, 2015

Notable Openings This Weekend: Selma, Taken 3

Welcome to the first Bold Box Office Predictions of 2015!  My New Year’s Resolution was to be grumpier, as I continue to make incorrect box office predictions for your amusement, and there’s no better way to get started than with January, one of the worst movie months of the calendar year.  Yes, there’s some Oscar spill over, but the wide releases are notorious for being Crapsville.  This weekend isn’t particularly bad though, as Taken supposedly finishes its run of films with #3.  Even though the second one wasn’t exactly through the roof, it’s tough to complain about Liam Neeson kicking yet some more ass.  We also have a big Oscar hopeful in Selma cracking more theaters, so let’s get to it – the first round of predictions for 2015!

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Taken came out of nowhere in 2009 and turned Liam Neeson into an absolute superstar. The sequel was inevitable, and despite the mixed to bad reviews, it still made a good chunk of change. Even though the last movie lost a lot of goodwill, I still think there’s enough interest to scrounge out one more solid profit. I think the studio knows they can only do this one more time, so this should be it for the franchise. The original Taken opened at a near $25 Million, and the sequel almost cracked $50 Million, so this one should fall smack down in the middle of both.  Add in the fact that its biggest competition has been out for over a month, and Taken 3 will easily win the weekend.

Expanding into wide release is Selma, the Martin Luther King Jr. film centering around the marches in Alabama, so a tad different than Taken 3.  Even though it’s not opening in a ton of theaters, it’s certainly a subject matter that people are always interested in seeing.  Add in all the award buzz and that 100% it’s still currently holding on Rotten Tomatoes as I write this, and Selma is poised for a nice opening relative to its theater count.

HOW WILL IT ALL BREAK DOWN…

Liam Neeson proves once again he has a very good set of skills as Taken 3 wins the day, with Selma besting Bilbo and the gang.

1. Taken 3 — $34 Million

2. Selma — $14.5 Million

3. The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies — $12 Million

4. Into the Woods — $11 Million 

5. Unbroken — $10 Million

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.