Bold Box Office Predictions: Will Election Year Purge Dory from #1?

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Notable Openings This Weekend: The BFG, The Legend of Tarzan, The Purge: Election Year

This might be the worst fourth of July movie weekend I’ve ever seen. This is some straight up garbage. I suppose The Purge has its followers, but nothing Earth shattering. FOX might be kicking themselves on not opening Independence Day on the actual Independence Day weekend, although I’m not sure how much that would have helped. I guess we all know where people stand on that franchise – 20 years too late indeed. Enough about ID4 though, because we have a movie opening this weekend that had the distinct honor of being tapped as my Battleship Memorial Flop of the Summer.  In a sea of underperforming, borderline bombs, I still believe The Legend of Tarzan will hold up as the quintessential, numero uno stinkaroo.

Tarzan poster

If you were to tell me the director of the last few Harry Potter movies (David Yates), and a cast that included Christoph Waltz, Samuel L. Jackson and Margot Robbie was coming out this summer, my eyebrows would have been raised. Then you find out it’s Tarzan. Just hearing that name immediately puts me to sleep. I had a picture in my head of what this movie would be as soon as it got announced, and the trailers gave me exactly that – boring. Lifeless. Yawn-inducing. And even though I mentioned a star-studded cast, I forgot to mention who’s actually playing Tarzan – Alexander Skarsgard. I’m sorry, but if you want to sell Tarzan, you have to do better than the True Blood guy. Remember when he was rumored to be Batman? (shudder)

According to Box Office Mojo, the production budget for this is $180 Million. It boggles my mind how so many smart studio executives make poor decisions like this. How do you give a Tarzan movie that much money? Are they living in a cuckoo clock?  I don’t get it. What market research told them Tarzan was still popular? Did they literally just say, “It’s a property we have rights to, make it.” Maybe I’ll look like a moron, as I have most of the summer, and this will do solid business with a great foreign take, but I’m going down with the ship. This will be a complete and utter disaster. 

bfg

Alright, I’ve picked on Tarzan enough. Time to pick on one of the greatest directors of all time – Steven Spielberg. The BFG looks like the most forgettable kids movie of all time.  The early sense I get from reviews is “It’s fine.” This will be a borderline flop. Maybe it’s full of wonder and magic, but all I can do right now is go off the trailers, and the trailers tell me not to think about this film more than I have to.

We finally get to the one new release that will actually perform well. For whatever reason, The Purge has seemed to find its core audience.  I’ll check them out at some point.  Bottom-line: Low budgets. Solid openings. This is your new Saw. I have nothing else to say.

HOW WILL IT ALL BREAK DOWN…

That damn fish will reign supreme once again due to poop competition.  I’m hoping Independence Day has a “resurgence” over the holiday, but the buzz just isn’t there.  The Purge opens second, while the other two new releases sink faster than Steph Curry’s popularity in the NBA Finals.



1. Finding Dory – $39.5


2. The Purge: Election Year – $26 Million

3. Independence Day: Resurgence – $19.5 Million

4. The BFG – $16 Million

5. The Legend of Tarzan – $15 Million

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.