Bold Box Office Predictions: December 13-15, 2013

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Notable Openings This Weekend: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Long. Bilbo Boring. Bifur, Bofur, Bombur, and Bored. Legolong. Yeah, I could go on all day. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug opens this weekend, part two of the most unnecessary trilogy in the history of trilogies. While the Hobbit isn’t necessarily my cup of tea, I know many of you are waiting to break down the doors of Hobbiton to see this thing. Although, I’m not sure it’s going to be as many as people think. We also have Tyler Perry’s Madea returning in A Madea Christmas. Some have even speculated that The Hobbit and Madea could end up being a shared universe…I’m kidding. In this day in age though, it wouldn’t surprise me. Anyway, it’s unnecessary sequels day here at Bold Box Office Predictions, so let’s get to it!

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When the first Hobbit opened last year at around $85 Million, I was shocked. I thought it would do way more as it almost feels like people light themselves on fire in praise of the Lord of the Rings trilogy. I guess the long layoff, the Guillermo del Toro shenanigans, and the 48 frames non-sense pissed people off, but at the end of the day, the film actually ended up breaking a billion dollars worldwide, so nobody is crying for Gandalf.

In looking at the response to The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, there is no question it massively disappointed many long time fans, and the critical response sank like an anvil compared to the original trilogy. The reviews for Smaug are better, but barely. There’s not a lot of good will right now, and this sequel will undoubtedly open lower then it’s predecessor, but make no mistake…it will be just fine.

As far as Madea goes, Tyler Perry movies are usually pretty consistent. They are made for low budget, get their solid weekend, and are never heard from again. I have no reason to believe this won’t be the same.

How Will It All Break Down…

Smaug is going to take a hit for it’s predecessor’s underwhelming reception, but it’s going to be just fine, and still make piles and piles of money. Also, the drop off between the 4th and 5th movies this weekend is going to be rather large…

TOP 5 BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS

1) The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug — $75 Million
2) Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas — $24 Million
3) Frozen — $19 Million
4) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — $13 Million
5) Out of the Furnace — $2.5 Million

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.