Bold Box Office Predictions: July 24-26, 2015
Notable Openings This Weekend: Pixels, Paper Towns, Southpaw
Before we get into the cluster [insert bad word here] of this weekend, let’s quickly revisit last weekend’s box office. There’s been a lot of emotion over Ant-Man’s $57+ Million dollar weekend take. The Marvel fans are in full defensive mode, and the Marvel haters are celebrating the studio’s first “flop.” The bottom-line is that they’re both wrong. Ant-Man disappointed, alright. There’s no if, ands, or buts about it. It’s the second lowest MCU film opening to date. Yeah, it’s an obscure property, but so was Guardians of the Galaxy, which made over $94 Million. That’s a big discrepancy. By no means is the film a failure though. It will profit. Marvel will be fine. It’s not the end of superhero movies. Everybody relax. I said from the beginning that Ant-Man was a movie Marvel just wanted to get through, and they did. Ironically enough, Ant-Man could still retain the #1 opening this weekend, which would be a big win for the Marvel fans, so let’s get into it.
I said in my summer preview article that Pixels had potential to surprise, but I did preface that with “if it gets the buzz.” Clearly, it’s not getting the buzz. I haven’t seen the movie, but my guess is that it’s not good, but not nearly as bad as critics are making it out to be. They love to take a dump on Adam Sandler. It’s like a teacher who grades a notoriously bad student an F before they even read the exam. What does this all mean for the box office? I have no clue. I could see this movie opening anywhere from $15-$45 Million. At the end of the day, it still has an appeal, Sandler can bring in an audience, and the competition isn’t that strong. As bad of a buzz as Pixels is getting, it’s still poised to open #1.
The other big release is Paper Towns, which is desperately trying to play off The Fault in our Stars crowd. There’s no way Paper Towns has that kind of opening, but it will do fine relative to its budget. The other wide release is Southpaw, which won’t make the top five due to its screen count, which is below 3,000. I feel like this is the kind of movie the studio thought could have Oscar potential, but then saw it was mediocre, and buried it in the summer.
HOW WILL IT ALL BREAK DOWN…
It will be a tight three-way battle between Ant-Man, Pixels, and even Minions, but Pixels should still win the day and avoid flop status.
1. Pixels — $32 Million
2. Ant-Man — $29 Million
3. Minions — $27 Million
4. Trainwreck — $20 Million
5. Paper Towns — $19 Million
Daniel Cohen is the Film Editor for Pop-Break. Aside from reviews, Daniel does a weekly box office predictions column, and also contributes monthly Top Tens and Op-Ed’s on all things film. Daniel is a graduate of Bates College with a degree in English, and also studied Screenwriting at UCLA. He can also be read on www.movieshenanigans.com. His movie crush is Jessica Rabbit. Follow him on Twitter @dcohenwriter.