Bold Box Office Predictions: April 1-3, 2016

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Notable Openings This Weekend: God’s Not Dead 2, Meet the Blacks

I don’t even know why I listed the above openings this weekend.  They don’t matter.  As interesting as last week’s box office was, everyone’s eyes have been set on this particular weekend for a long time.  We all knew Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice was going to score a massive opening weekend out of pure curiosity and hype.  Mission accomplished.  It’s tough to complain about a near $170 Million opening weekend, but there’s no doubt had the film gotten better reviews and was received more favorably by audiences, it could have easily neared $200 Million.  That being said, the overall worldwide box office was huge.  The film is already more than halfway to $1 Billion.  This is truly the weekend where we separate the men from the boys though.  The hype is over.  The curiosity is over.  Every snarky online critic is waiting to see what the drop off will be so they can re-tweet and gloat that Marvel is better like little hyenas.  Here’s the question – will the drop off be so poor that it freaks Warner Brothers out about future plans?

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Here’s the good news – there is absolutely no competition whatsoever.  The stars could not be more aligned for Warner Brothers.  Not only are the two wide release movies inconsequential, but even ridiculously well received movies like Zootopia or 10 Cloverfield Lane are way in the rear view mirror.  If you’re going to the movies this weekend, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is essentially the only option.  Had there been something halfway decent coming out, the drop off would have been catastrophic.  The utter lack of competition is the ultimate savior for this film.

That’s the good news.  Here’s the bad – audiences aren’t gung ho about the movie.  They’ve certainly been more favorable than critics, but a B Cinemascore isn’t stellar.  To give you an idea, films like Green Lantern and Catwoman also scored a B.  I’m sure you already knew that though, as every online pundit sprinted to Social Media so they could shove it in everybody’s faces.  We overrate Cinemascore, but word of mouth is certainly not fantastic.  At this point, critics can’t hurt the film anymore, but if audiences aren’t talking about it, or going back for repeat viewings, that’s where the drop off comes.

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If there’s a silver lining for Warner Brothers, it’s this – despite a barrage of negativity and absolute hatred all weekend, the film still managed to score the seventh all time opening weekend record.  That says to me audiences want DC movies.  At some point, Warner Brothers will put out a DC movie that is universally praised.  It’s going to happen.  It may even happen as soon as August with Suicide Squad.

As far as the new movies go, nobody cares.  I’m sure God’s Not Dead 2 will do well, as those types of movies always surprise.

HOW WILL IT ALL BREAK DOWN…

As long as the drop off isn’t record breaking, everything should be hunky-dory for Warner Brothers.  Zack Snyder isn’t out of the woods yet, but he should be all systems go for Justice League.  The drop off will be big, but due to lack of competition, it will stay respectable.

1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice – $65 Million

2. Zootopia – $16 Million

3. God’s Not Dead 2 – $11.5 Million

4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 – $11 Million

5. Miracles From Heaven – $5.5 Million

 

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.