Bold Box Office Predictions: Suicide Squad Will Take #1, But Will Reviews Hurt It?

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NOTABLE OPENINGS THIS WEEKEND: Suicide Squad, Nine Lives

This is the worst movie ever made!

There’s a bias against DC because they aren’t Marvel.”

DC should just give up.”

Critics are being paid off to slam DC!

I’ve had significant chest pains yelling about a movie I haven’t seen yet!”

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Uh-oh.  There must be a DC film in town. I’m tired. Simply exhausted. Do we really have to go through this for 10 months until Wonder Woman opens? As a vociferous DC fan, I don’t have the energy anymore. I have my opinions. You have yours.  I can’t do this anymore.  While my review is already published, I write this pre-viewing. Without having seen the movie though, I can definitively say it’s not the best movie ever made, nor is it the worst. We’re here to talk about the film’s box office. I’m not going to solve all the mysteries of the world in this article. The state of film criticism. Whiney fanboys on both sides. Absolutes. Maybe another time, but not today. However you feel about Suicide Squad, know this – it’s about to make a crap load of money.

The critical reaction has been stunning. I know DC films outside of Nolan’s Batman haven’t exactly done gang busters, but I blindly assumed this would score 80% or better on Rotten Tomatoes. Boy, do I look like a dum dum. First of all, it’s a different type of superhero tale. “Different” usually gets an “attaboy” from critics, ala Deadpool. And those trailers. Oh, those trailers. EVERYONE was blown away by the marketing. Even the most ardent, snarky DC nitpicker gave them a golf clap. When the dust settles, Suicide Squad will join the ranks of previous DCEU efforts. Divisive. Will this affect the box office? Yes and no.

At the very worst, Suicide Squad will finish third for opening weekends this summer. Lock it in. If the movie had hit a higher Rotten Tomato score, we could have been looking at astronomical numbers. That’s not going to happen now. Where Suicide Squad could be successful where Batman v Superman wasn’t is in the following weekends. While the buzz is bad, you can already feel the temperature in the room from fans. This will go over with audiences MUCH better than the darker BvS. Will Suicide Squad be the massive blockbuster we all thought it would? Maybe not. In a summer filled with yawns and underperformers, Suicide Squad will still reach the summer mountain top behind only Finding Dory and Captain America: Civil War. That’s a good day at the office.

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Not only do we have the internet storm that is Suicide Squad opening, but let’s not forget my personal pick for Worst Movie of the Summer way back in April. NINE LIVES HAS ARRIVED, BABY!  I got to be honest with everyone – this movie will be bad.  No question. I no longer think it will be the worst film of the summer though. The trailers give me a “it’s so bad, it’s good” vibe. Call me crazy, but there might be legitimate laughs. In a summer that will go down as the worst summer for comedies of all time, maybe Nine Lives will at least garner some unintentional chuckles. I’m grasping at straws. Cut me a break. This is opening in less than 3,000 theaters. It will barely crack the top five, but shouldn’t bomb.

HOW WILL IT ALL BREAK DOWN…

The positive buzz that Suicide Squad generated for nearly a year is too much to be taken down by bad reviews. It will open north of $140 Million. Could it have been better?  Yeah, it could have been better. But let’s not forget – this is a superhero movie with no superheroes (okay, Batman barely is in it), and it’s going to crack well over $100 Million? You can’t complain.

1. Suicide Squad – $148 Million

2. Jason Bourne – $28 Million
3. Bad Moms – $13.5 Million
4. The Secret Life of Pets – $9 Million

5. Nine Lives – $7 Million
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Daniel Cohen is the Film Editor for Pop-Break. Aside from reviews, Daniel does a weekly box office predictions column, and also contributes monthly Top Tens and Op-Ed’s on all things film. Daniel is a graduate of Bates College with a degree in English, and also studied Screenwriting at UCLA. He can also be read on www.movieshenanigans.com. His movie crush is Jessica Rabbit. Follow him on Twitter @dcohenwriter.

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.