Box Offie Predictions: Will Rogue One Break Force Awakens’ Record?

Notable Openings This Weekend: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Collateral Beauty

I know, I know. It’s been a while. But seriously, what was I supposed to analyze for the last few weeks? Moana will finish #1. Moana will finish #1. Moana will finish #1. Yay. The more exciting box office has been relegated to limited screenings, as the Oscar films are starting to creep out and expand. Just as a side note, La La Land opened in five theaters totaling $881,104 (via Box Office Mojo). That’s La La Ludicrous. Absolutely insane. But whatever, you don’t want to hear about La La Land. You don’t want to hear about Manchester by the Sea. You don’t want to hear about Awards. The time has come to dive into the biggest release of 2016…Collateral Beauty.

It’s still fair to consider Will Smith a star who can open a movie, but the polish is starting to wear down. I know he had his biggest opening ever this year with Suicide Squad, but that would have essentially done the same if he weren’t involved. That was more about the property. It’s going to take a miracle and a lot of “Gettin’ Jiggy Wit It” for Will to propel this to a passable opening. This thing is getting eviscerated. Let’s be honest, this was pandering at its worst. The movie looks like a Hallmark card. We all know it probably blows. There’s not much else to say. I’m sure this script looked pretty and nice when all these great actors signed on (or maybe the pay days were ridiculous), but the final product sure as hell looks excruciating. This will bomb, but I can’t imagine it doesn’t at least finish with around $10 Million with all these names attached. The fact that the studio opened this on the same weekend as the actual biggest release of 2016 tells you everything you need to know.

Let’s get to the actual movie opening this weekend. This is it. A Star Wars first. The first ever Star Wars spin-off film. I’ve been sort of dreading this day. After this weekend, the Star Wars film franchise will no longer be pure. The episodic only series that has been numbered out in a clear, concise order will forever be ruined. There are now branches, and soon to be sub-branches that will stem from my beloved franchise. Keep in mind that I write this without having seen the film. By the time you read this, my review will be posted. I don’t care how many positive reviews I see – I’m still skeptical. All that doesn’t matter though. We’re here to analyze how much money Rogue One is going to make. Spoiler Alert – a lot.

For months, I thought this was going to perform significantly lower than The Force Awakens. Now I’m not so sure. There’s no way in Greedo this film makes as much, or breaks The Force Awakens’ record. 0% chance. In reading the buzz, and seeing how it broke Fandango just asForce Awakensdid, it could get close to that magical $200 Million mark. Despite this feeling like a JV Star Wars experience, it’s still Star Wars. Whether you’re two years old, or sixty, everybody wants to be a part of Star Wars. It’s a Rancor that can’t be stopped. There’s nothing else to say but let those credits roll in, baby!

HOW WILL IT ALL BREAK DOWN…

Rogue Onewill fall short of the $200 Million mark, but that’s still good for fourth all time opening weekend, falling behindStar Wars: The Force Awakens,Jurassic WorldandMarvel’s The Avengers. I wouldn’t be shocked if it topped $200 Million, but the force may not be strong enough.

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – $191.5 Million

2. Moana– $11.5 Million

3. Collateral Beauty– $10 Million

4. Office Christmas Party– $8.5 Million

5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – $6 Million

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.