Pop-Break’s Official 2015 Oscar Nomination Predictions
Pop-Break film editor Daniel Cohen and editor-in-chief Bill Bodkin put their heads together (in agreement and opposition) to predict who they will be getting their name read tomorrow morning for the 87th Annual Academy Awards.
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Daniel Cohen:
Predictions: American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, Foxcatcher, Gone Girl, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash
Analysis: The last two years, there have been nine films nominated for Best Picture, and I believe that trend continues once again. Here are the locks: Boyhood, Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and Birdman. The Imitation Game is basically a lock, but I wouldn’t be completely shocked if it got left out (or maybe that’s just wishful thinking on my part). I was a little concerned about Whiplash, but when I saw it got a PGA nomination, it made me feel better. The Theory of Everything is on the fringe right now. People are high on the performances, but the movie itself might be on the outside looking in. It should be fine, but no WGA nomination has me curious.
The movie I truly felt was the front-runner alongside Boyhood a couple months ago was Gone Girl, but for whatever reason, it’s been a complete afterthought. It should get the nomination here, but if you’re a big fan of that film, I’d be a little nervous. The movie that has picked up ridiculous steam on all fronts though is American Sniper. I fully expect a nomination here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this film turned into a real player come Oscar night.
Even though Nightcrawler got a PGA nomination, I don’t see it happening here. I know everyone thinks I’m crazy, but I’m sorry – Selma is out. I know every time you walk outside your home to go to work or school, a random stranger screams in your face, “Selma has a ton of Oscar buzz! OMFG!!!!!” So why do I have it out? No PGA nomination. No DGA nomination. No WGA nomination. No SAG nominations – Goose eggs across the board. Same thing happened to Inside Llewyn Davis last year. Selma won’t get in, resulting in the inevitable Twitter/Facebook apocalypse.
Bill Bodkin:
Predictions: American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, Foxcatcher, Gone Girl, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything, Selma
Analysis: A few weeks ago I really thought this was a dead year for the Oscars. However, when you see this list, it’s pretty damn interesting. Well, at least to me. The reason being is that the majority of these films have emerged as contenders later than usual and the momentum has shifted so much. Gone Girl seemed like it had a spot sewn up, and despite my inclusion of it on this list, I can see it being left off. But, with the recent DVD release it seems people are remembering, “Oh hey, I liked this movie.”
Grand Budapest was not on my original list, but when it snagged the Globe last week over Birdman, Wes Anderson’s film punched its ticket for the director’s first Best Picture nom ever.
The lay-ups in this category are obvious: Birdman, Imitation Game, Boyhood, American Sniper, Foxcatcher and Theory of Everything.
Now comes the controversy. I’m going to go with my gut on this one – Selma gets the nod. Now, you can tell me about guilds. You can compare it to Lee Daniels’ The Butler. However, the first movie about Martin Luther King won’t get nominated? It’s got the critical acclaim, overwhelming support from the Hollywood community and the awards are being announced on his birthday. That last one has zero impact on things, but the stars are aligning with Selma is what I’m saying. Sadly, Dan’s movie of the year Whiplash does not make the cut. I think people are seeing this as a J.K. Simmons’ performance piece and not a complete movie.
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