Box Office Predictions: Can Tim Burton or Mark Wahlberg Topple Mag 7?


Notable Openings This Weekend: Miss Peregrine’s Home For Peculiar Children, Deepwater Horizon, Masterminds

As we close out the final September weekend and prepare ourselves for full on Oscar mode, I for one have been satisfied thus far with the Fall Movie Season. Yeah, we had some forgettable stinkers (When the Bough Breaks, Storks). The two movies I was most looking forward to though in September (Sully, Snowden) delivered. I have high hopes for the rest of the Fall. Speaking of high hopes, this weekend won’t be one of them. It’s a cavalcade of crap. Let’s start with the movie that might actually be good, but the marketing sure hasn’t done it any favors.


In our Fall Preview Podcast, we discussed how Mark Wahlberg and director Peter Berg are both hit or miss. From the reviews this could be one of the hits. Whoever cut these trailers screwed up at Trent Richardson Running Back levels. Seriously. They make this look like Generic Disaster Movie Perfect Storm Part 74. It reminds me of Edge of Tomorrow (Oh, sorry. Live. Die. Repeat). Remember that Tom Cruise movie from a couple years ago? It was an all time marketing apocalypse. Those trailers were excruciating to sit through. The actual movie turned out pretty damn good though. Pure word of mouth willed that to “We didn’t lose as much as we thought we would” numbers. Deepwater Horizon has shades of The Finest Hours from earlier this year, which tanked at just over $10 Million opening weekend. Good buzz should carry this to over $20 Million, but barely. It will skate by.

Alright, let’s get the Tim Burton discussion over with. Dark Shadows opened at just under $30 Million. This will do slightly worse. According to Box Office Mojo, the production budget is $110 Million. With foreign gross it won’t be a complete disaster, but people are tiring of the Tim Burton shtick, and this looks like the most workmanlike Tim Burton movie of all time. Also, how off putting is that title? Come on. It was annoying to even cut and paste it for this article. Woe is me. I want to be clear – I want to see another great Tim Burton film. I really do. But this isn’t it. On Monday morning, we’ll all tweet that everyone is tiring of Tim Burton for the 900th time and move on. The end.

Well, here we are. My prediction for Worst Movie of the Fall graces theaters this weekend. To be fair, I haven’t seen the film yet (but will be). Maybe it’s great. For the sake of this discussion, I’m going to assume it’s as bad as advertised. If that’s the case, I’m hoping my box office prediction comes true. Flop-a-rama. I don’t care if it has a gluttony of well known comic actors. I’ve read no interest in this film whatsoever. If you’re one of the eight people that think this movie is going to be awesome because it’s the same guy who directed Napoleon Dynamite, please leave me alone. The movie will tank. That’s it. I just hope I can get through my screening. The things I do for Pop-Break.



It will be a mish-mash of come and go’s. Nothing will do great, but nothing will be an unmitigated disaster. Masterminds will not finish in the top five. Tim Burton wins by default.

1. Miss Peregrine’s Home For Peculiar Children – $26 Million

2. Deepwater Horizon – $21 Million

3. The Magnificent Seven – $17 Million

4. Storks – $11 Million

5. Sully – $8 Million

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.