Best Director Race: Welcome to Damien (Chazelle) Land
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Out of all the major categories, Damien Chazelle winning Best Director may be the biggest lock of the night. Even if La La Land doesn’t win Best Picture, I can’t envision a scenario in which Chazelle loses this award. This is Chazelle’s third feature film as director, and he’s already delivered two masterpieces. To quote Mugatu, “so hot right now.” La La Land is a brilliantly crafted musical. There are so many monumental sequences that blow your top off. Not only does he deliver the big, sweeping musical numbers like the freeway scene or the majestic planetarium dance, but he gives you the traditional moments as well. The dinner argument between Sebastian and Mia is tense, and even the ending has a quiet subtlety to it. It’s nearly flawless in its construction, and I would drop down in shock of Chazelle lost this award.
Chances of Winning: High
Is the Direction Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Despite all the baggage that comes with a Mel Gibson nomination, his direction was too hard to ignore. Hacksaw Ridge is filmmaking at its finest. Gibson takes three different movies and blends them together like a cohesive master craftsman. The character moments are as good as anything you’ll see in film. We know Andrew Garfield and Hugo Weaving are great actors, but to get the performances he did from guys like Vince Vaughn, Luke Bracey and Sam Worthington (Sam Worthington!!?!?!) tells you everything you need to know about his skills as a director. Aside from that, the war scenes are second only to Saving Private Ryan. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – if there was no baggage, Mel Gibson would easily be Chazelle’s biggest challenger. No question.
Chances of Winning: Low
Is the Direction Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
The only one who can really challenge Damien Chazelle for this award is Barry Jenkins. Think of him as the San Antonio Spurs to this year’s Golden State Warriors. There’s no doubt Moonlight was made on a bargain bin budget, so what Jenkins was able to pull off certainly speaks to his direction. The film packs a punch. That’s the best way to describe it. What could ultimately win Jenkins this award is just how deep he’s able to get into the mindset of these characters. The structure of the film is also unique, although that speaks more to the screenplay, which Jenkins is sure to win. It’s still a tough road, but he’s got a morsel of hope. This is only his second film. We’ll be seeing this guy again, that’s for sure.
Chances of Winning: Middle of the Pack
Is the Direction Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
If getting great performances out of your actors is one of the primary jobs of being a great director, nobody did it better than Kenneth Lonergan. With three acting nominations, that’s the most out of any film from 2016. Lonergan could very well be a deep dark horse in this category. Manchester by the Sea truly is an emotional masterpiece. Had this film come out last year, or even the year before, it probably would have snagged most major awards. The one element that will ultimately hurt Lonergan is the film does run a bit long, and meanders just a tad. It’s unlikely, but Lonergan is no doubt in third position to take home the gold.
Chances of Winning: Middle of the Pack
Is the Direction Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – this guy is the next Christopher Nolan. Hell, he may win an Oscar before Nolan does. It won’t be this year, but to see Villeneuve in this category is awesome. Out of all the movies from 2016, Arrival is certainly the biggest think piece. Credit to Villeneuve for bringing that out from script to screen. Where Villeneuve really shines are in the scenes where Amy Adams and Jeremy Renner simply go up in an elevator to see the ship for the first time. He makes it suspenseful, tense and entertaining. That takes skill. Everything about this movie intrigues. There is no lag. You’re constantly glued to the screen. This isn’t Villeneuve’s year, but his time is coming. Who knows? Maybe it will be next year with Blade Runner 2049…
Chances of Winning: Low
Is the Direction Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
For more of our predictions check our annual Oscar Podcast!
