Box Office Predictions: Captain Jack Sparrow Will Easily Sail Past Baywatch & Alien For #1

NOTABLE OPENINGS THIS WEEKEND: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man Tell No Tales, Baywatch

Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, matey! There be pirates opening in cinemas this weekend!

No, not them.

No! Stop! Unfortunately, we’re talking about Pirates who are a hell of a lot less interesting. Remember in 2003 when Disney released that really cool movie based off the theme park ride? Yeah, that was such a neat surprise! Oh man, Jack Sparrow was such a funny side character! I love Johnny Depp!


For the love of Pirate Booty popcorn, how the hell has this franchise lasted this long? Stop. Go away. Enough. By all accounts, this movie isn’t bad, but completely whatever, joining the ranks of so many other recent summer movies. What else am I supposed to say at this point? Seriously. What do you want from me? It’s Jack Sparrow…he’s back. Arrr.

In our Summer Preview Podcast, I said this movie would do fine, but nothing earth shattering. That’s pretty much what we’re going to see here. Domestically, it will do well enough, but shouldn’t warrant a sequel. The question will be its international gross, which the fourth film from six years ago absolutely slaughtered. This was my live reaction when I first saw that Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides made over a billion dollars Worldwide:

Pirates will be #1 this week. It is what it is. Please. Let me move on.

Going from one part of the sea to another, it’s Baywatch time. When the year began, we all saw CHiPs and Baywatch on the calendar, and it was pretty clear what each film was attempting to accomplish: 21 Jump Street. I’m going to say 99.9% of us figured Baywatch would easily be the better movie. After reading reviews, I’m not so sure about that. Yikes.

This movie could have a 0% on Rotten Tomatoes, and it would still obliterate CHiP’s box office. We’ve seen this throughout movie history. There’s a successful formula (21 Jump Street), so a bunch of people try to emulate it. How many Naked Gun rip-offs have we seen in our lifetime? Here’s what movies like Baywatch and CHiPs don’t understand. Everyone isn’t Christopher Miller and Phil Lord. 21 Jump Street looks easy, but it’s really not.

21 Jump Street had the perfect combination of directors and actors. Speaking of actors, this movie does have Dwayne Johnson. I’m sure in an otherwise poor movie, he elevates it to “not horrible.” With The Rock aboard, this movie will do fine box office wise, but the bad reviews will keep it from being the sleeper hit it definitely could have been.


Maybe if Alien: Covenant got better word of mouth, it could have chipped away at Pirates’ box office, but there’s no strong hold over here. Pirates of the Caribbean will ease into #1, but the down tick from the last movie will be noticeable. Please. Please. I’m begging the movie Gods – let this be the last time we see Jack Sparrow.

Side Note: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 sneaks by Alien: Covenant.

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man Tell No Tales – $65 Million

2. Baywatch – $24 Million

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 – $17.5 Million

4. Alien: Covenant – $16.5 Million

5. Everything, Everything – $7 Million

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.