I go on this soapbox every year: I don’t care about the Golden Globes. Why would I watch the NIT when March Madness is waiting around the corner? Having said that, the Globe nominations are a significant day. It marks the official start of Awards season. We’ve arrived.
If for nothing else, these nominations should serve as a wake-up call to everyone. I want to help people today. I really do. I want you to get the following ingrained in your heads right now. The following movies will not be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars:
Logan. Wonder Woman. Baby Driver. Thor: Ragnarok. Coco. Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Blade Runner 2049.
Had Blade Runner made a lot of money and gotten a mainstream push, it would have a Mad Max-esque chance. The technical awards should be there, but the underwhelming box office probably means the studio won’t be doing a big Oscar push in major awards.
I suppose I’ll put a small caveat on Star Wars. It’s a little too early to tell, and the early Twitter reaction is loopy right now. But again, that early reaction comes from the online film crowd who talk pop culture all day. It’s not the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences tweeting out these insane reactions.
Again though, I want to help you. Stare at that list. It’s not going to happen. Don’t do this to yourself. Don’t get your hopes up.
Certainly, I’d love to be wrong on a film like Logan, but I’ve covered the Oscars too long. I know what’s going to happen. While the Globes have nothing to do with the Oscars, the nominations this year are the most standard Oscar type fare you’re going to find. I believe it will be the same case when we get to the actual Oscars.
Without further ado though, let’s get to those actual nominations:
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Nominees: Call Me by Your Name, Dunkirk, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Absolutely no surprises here whatsoever. I guess the only surprise is that Three Billboards was put in the Drama category. That one could go either way. A movie about newspapers directed by Steven Spielberg starring Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep getting nominated is about as surprising as Starbucks brewing coffee in the morning. I’m really hoping that movie is great, and not just here because of the reasons I just listed.
I’ve yet to see Call Me by Your Name (I know, I know. I’ll get to it!). But by all accounts, it’s considered the front-runner right now for the Oscars. The director omission though is interesting. We’ll get to that. The biggest hindrance for this movie right now is that similar subject matter just won last year with Moonlight.
The biggest challenger to Call Me by Your Name has to be Dunkirk. What else is there to say? It’s Dunkirk. While The Shape of Water may not be a big Best Picture contender, it could make waves in other categories. I’ve made my views clear on that movie in my review. I like it, but it’s overrated.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Nominees: The Disaster Artist, Get Out, The Greatest Showman, I, Tonya, Lady Bird
This is a power packed list! Everything here is expected with the exception of one omission – The Big Sick. That’s a mild surprise. It’s a great film and did well financially. In all honesty though, when I look at that list, it’s stacked as hell. This is a competitive field.
The one surprise is I, Tonya, which I’ve yet to see. It looks fantastic, but I figured that would have been a Darkest Hour situation. All Margot Robbie, but the film is just fine. This is where I thought The Big Sick would go.
We’ve yet to see The Greatest Showman, but come on, that last trailer was awesome. This was an inevitability. No surprise there. Lady Bird. Slam dunk.
In fact, I would say Lady Bird is the early-front runner, but right behind it has to be The Disaster Artist and Get Out. I complain all the time about Best Comedy being separated out, but I’ve got to be honest, this is a fascinating field. While I mentioned all the fan favorite movies that won’t get nominated this year, Get Out doesn’t fall under that list.
This movie is legit and will get Oscar consideration.
BEST ACTRESS – MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
All these names have been through the ringer. Molly’s Game has been getting decent buzz. I’m not sure that’s a movie that will make huge Oscar waves, but Chastain can never be counted out. Meryl Streep. Next. Michelle Williams always seems to be the bridesmaid, never the bride. We’ll see what kind of impact All the Money in the World makes, but this is probably another loss on what has been an impressive resume for Williams. She’ll get the statue at some point.
This has to be a battle between McDormand and Hawkins. I know it seems easy to call the lay up for McDormand, but Hawkins is getting a big surge lately.
BEST ACTRESS – MOSTION PICTURE COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Much like Meryl Streep, Judi Dench and Helen Mirren get their contractually obligated nominations, but this is a dead heat between Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie. Everybody else is along for the ride.
BEST ACTOR – MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
I’ll never argue Denzel Washington getting nominated for an award, but by all accounts, Roman J. Israel, Esq. stinks. Once this category gets condensed with the Comedy guys at Oscar time, he’s got no chance here.
Everyone else has to be taken seriously. I get the feeling Tom Hanks might be the odd man out once Franco, Jackman and Kaluuya get in the mix, but too early to tell on The Post.
The Daniel Day-Lewis retirement tour will be tough to ignore, but Chalamet and Oldman are going to be tough to take down. They’ve got to be considered the front-runners.
BEST ACTOR – MOTION COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out They threw Baby Driver a bone here, alright! Ansel Elgort. No chance. Let’s get that out of the way. Steve Carell no chance here as well. Battle of the Sexes will be ousted once this category is condensed for the Oscars. It just didn’t hit.
I know it’s easy to say Franco and call it day, and he probably will win this. It’s too early to tell on Jackman though, and Daniel Kaluuya could absolutely pull off an upset here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – MOTION PICTURE
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
You can probably throw Octavia Spencer in the contractually obligated nomination list. She is an awards machine. This is a tough category to get a read on right now. Downsizing doesn’t seem to be hitting at all, so Hong Chau is probably low on the list to win here.
Allison Janney, Laurie Metcalf and Mary J. Blige all have a shot. Blige in particular has been getting scorching momentum.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – MOTION PICTURE
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
This could very well be the Oscar list. The Christopher Plummer phenomenon really is amazing to think about. This guy just filmed these scenes a few weeks ago. That’s incredible. I doubt he’s a serious contender here. Richard Jenkins is also along for the ride.
I’ve made it no secret that I’m a Armie Hammer naysayer. I’ve just never been blown away. By all accounts though, he shines in this film. He’s got to be the front-runner here, along with Willem Dafoe.
Sam Rockwell was exceptionally complex and impressive in Three Billboards. He has to be taken seriously for this award and the Oscar.
While I made a big stink about the mainstream movies not being up for Best Picture, I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Patrick Stewart or Mark Hamill sneak in here. That’s a legit possibility come Oscar time.
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All The Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post
The omission of Luca Guadagnino for Call Me by Your Name is shocking. This indicates to me that Dunkirk will probably win Best Picture for Drama. This could very well be the Oscar list with the exception of Ridley Scott. I’d imagined Guadagnino will replace him come Oscar time. I also think Greta Gerwig could easily kick out Spielberg or McDonagh for this spot.
When it comes to winning this award, both for the Globes and Oscar, it’s a two man show and that’s it. Nolan Vs. del Toro. This is the category all awards season long that’s going to give me the most anxiety.
I picked Nolan when I reviewed Dunkirk. I’m not wavering now.
Nominees: The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, The Post, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Molly’s Game
I’m surprised Get Out didn’t make the cut here, and also another surprising omission for Call Me by Your Name. This is between Lady Bird and Three Billboards.