Welcome back to The Pop Break’s third annual Oscar predictions series. Like the previous two years, the site’s film editor, and Oscar guru Daniel Cohen, takes a deep dive into the major races, and examines not only who might walk away with the Oscar on March 4, but the realistic chances of everyone else nominated.
Warning: Spoilers Abound
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
It’s hard to believe, but I almost feel like Sally Hawkins’ performance is going under the radar in The Shape of Water. It feels like Guillermo del Toro and the supporting performances are getting more attention. The Shape of Water might be the most overrated movie of 2017, but it’s not because of Sally Hawkins. She is this movie.
There’s no doubt Hawkins is a deep dark horse in this category, but I’m shocked she isn’t being taken more seriously. Her role has Oscar written all over it. As a mute character, she has to convey an incredible amount of emotion and firepower without saying one word. Is she such a good actress that we’ve taken this performance for granted?
(Shape of Water Spoilers)
Ironically, her big Oscar moment is the one scene where she does actually get to speak. It reminded me a lot of Anne Hathaway’s show stopping moment from Les Miserables, and she won the Oscar.
It’s definitely a long shot, but to completely ignore Sally Hawkins pulling off a historic upset might be a mistake.
Chances of Winning: Middle of the Pack
Is the Performance Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
If you’ve seen Three Billboards, there’s nothing else I could possibly add to describe how good Frances McDormand is in this movie. Even the Three Billboards haters and naysayers will tell you she’s incredible and should probably win an Oscar.
Mildred Hayes is met with complete and utter tragedy. The character is tough as nails and intense as hell. At times, especially when she’s alone on screen, the character is just as vulnerable as she is tough. McDormand also gets a monologue to end all monologues. If you’ve seen the film, you know exactly what I’m talking about.
Everything about the character has “Vintage Oscar” written all over it, and Frances McDormand gives a flawless, towering performance.
She’s the clear front-runner. The end.
Chances of Winning: High
Is the Performance Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
When I first saw I, Tonya, I really thought Margot Robbie would be in legit contention along with McDormand, Ronan and Hawkins. She has clearly fallen to a distant fourth. I can’t stress enough how good of a performance Margot Robbie gives. Much like McDormand, she’s tough, but it’s those scenes where Tonya Harding has a complete breakdown that get her into Oscar land.
What could ultimately cost her is that the performance is overshadowed by Allison Janney. I still think Margot Robbie gives the best performance in the film, but Janney sticks with you more because the character is so outlandish. I compared Allison Janney to J.K. Simmons in Whiplash, and the result is very similar. In Whiplash, you forget how good Miles Teller is because of what J.K. Simmons does. It’s the same here with Allison Janney and Margot Robbie.
While she won’t win, years down the road, it could be Margot Robbie’s performance I remember most from this year’s crop of nominees. It’s very similar to Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler, and that’s a comparison I don’t make lightly.
Chances of Winning: Middle of the Pack
Is the Performance Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuDQOMICfr0
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Let’s first acknowledge that at age 23, Saoirse Ronan has three Oscar nominations. Geez Louise. Ronan poses the biggest threat to Frances McDormand, and for good reason. Ronan gives a perfect performance. There’s no other possible way this role could have been done better. Ronan’s delivery of Greta Gerwig’s incredible words is flawless. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – Lady Bird is a much better Juno. Ronan is a big reason why. While other actresses could have done this role justice, the film would never have blown up the way it did had it not been for Ronan’s seamless performance. For as good as Ronan is in this movie, here’s the problem – where’s the Oscar moment?
With Frances McDormand, you can point to several Oscar clips. You can’t do that with Ronan. While Ronan plays the coming of age teenager to perfection with pristine delivery and mood swings, there isn’t that earth-shattering moment. Maybe the ending, but it still doesn’t stack up to the big moments of her competition.
Ronan could still take this based on the fact that filmmakers will show this as the standard to any actress who gets cast in any coming of age story, but it may not be enough.
Chances of Winning: High
Is the Performance Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Meryl Streep (The Post)
While I have my issues with The Post, Meryl Streep is certainly not one of them. While she’s running a distant last place in this category, I’m sure Meryl is perfectly content with her 21 acting nominations. It didn’t even seem like people wanted to put in the effort this year of doing the whole “Seriously, Meryl again?” kvetching. We’re all resigned to the fact that when Oscar nominations come out, Meryl Streep will be one of them, just like Tom Brady going to the Super Bowl.
Someday it might be fun to go down all of Meryl’s nominations and determine which she deserved, and which she didn’t (*cough* Into the Woods *cough*). For today, let’s focus on The Post.
While Steven Spielberg isn’t at the top of his game with this movie, Meryl sure as hell is. This is definitely a well-deserved nomination. In fact, the script is just okay, so Streep has to elevate the material. As I said in my review, there’s one moment in particular that got her this nomination. Her dramatic pause on the “yes” or “no” to publish the papers is the single best moment of the entire film. Not even a question.
This is, simply put, another vintage Meryl Streep performance. As Perry White says in BvS: “Other breaking news. Water wet.”
Chances of Winning: Low
Is the Performance Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
