Welcome back to The Pop Break’s third annual Oscar predictions series. Like the previous two years, the site’s film editor, and Oscar guru Daniel Cohen, takes a deep dive into the major races, and examines not only who might walk away with the Oscar on March 4, but the realistic chances of everyone else nominated.
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
If there’s one actor who can pull off the upset against Gary Oldman, the consensus seems to be Chalamet. His performance is good in the first half, but it’s not until the last thirty minutes where Chalamet goes into Oscar land. Chalamet does a great job at hiding a lot of internal pain and confusion as his fondness for Armie Hammer’s character grows.
The scene that everyone points to is the big talk Elio has with his dad, played by Michael Stuhlbarg. This scene is why everyone tried to will an Oscar nomination into existence for Stuhlbarg. It’s an impressive scene, easily the best in the movie. It’s easy to forget, but Chalamet is equally as gut-wrenching with little dialogue.
What cements Chalamet’s performance is the last shot of the film. What pisses me off is the way Luca Guadagnino directs this scene. It’s one of the best damn moments in the movie, yet the stupid end credits play over it. I’m sorry, but that completely undercuts the performance. That’s just me.
Despite being a viable candidate here, Chalamet has two MASSIVE hurdles to climb: He’s twenty-two, and the performance is very understated.
Chances of Winning: High
Is the Performance Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Boy, do we take Daniel Day-Lewis for granted. If this were any other actor, he’d be a serious contender, but because it’s Daniel Day-Lewis, everyone is just like “Whatever, of course he’s great.” What Daniel Day-Lewis achieves in Phantom Thread is ten times more impressive than when he won playing Abraham Lincoln.
The best way to describe it is Leonardo DiCaprio in The Aviator, but subtle. Both work for different reasons. As Reynolds Woodcock, Daniel Day-Lewis plays a disturbed curmudgeon who’s obsessed with his work. The guy just wants to make his garments, but he needs inspiration. Enter Vicky Krieps as Alma, an actress who really deserves more credit.
One of the best scenes all year is when Alma interrupts Woodcock with some tea or something, and the dude cannot handle it. He makes it seem like his entire life is now ruined because Alma entered a room while he was working. Daniel Day-Lewis is incredible in this moment.
Out of all the nominees on this list, he’s my personal favorite. While Best Actor is essentially a two horse race, I wouldn’t be completely flabbergasted if Daniel Day-Lewis pulled off a monumental upset here.
If I were voting, he’d be my pick.
Chances of Winning: Middle of the Pack
Is the Performance Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Similar to Mary J. Blige for Mudbound, Kaluuya’s nomination is impressive because of how many good performances there are in Get Out. He’s clearly the stand out though. If his performance isn’t spectacular, the movie doesn’t work. That’s it. He’s the avatar for the audience. He’s the only grounded person in the entire damn movie, aside from his friend, Rod (LilRel Howery), but he’s not actually at the Armitage house.
Kaluuya plays a subtle, confused character just trying to understand what the hell is going on. Once the crap hits the fan, he’s asked to transition into an entirely different performance. He’s scared as hell, but has an intense fire and drive to get out of that damn house.
Kaluuya won’t win, but he’s the iconic image of the movie. Whenever you think of Get Out, you immediately think of that poster with the crap load of tears dripping down Kaluuya’s face. After you see the film, it’s an image that resonates even more. That’s all Kaluuya.
Chances of Winning: Middle of the Pack
Is the Performance Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
I really don’t have much to say about Gary Oldman. The performance speaks for itself. It’s exactly what you think it is. It’s Gary Oldman playing Winston Churchill, and he’s really incredible at it. You can read my review for Darkest Hour here where I essentially outline for several paragraphs on why he’s amazing.
While the film itself is decent, I give director Joe Wright a lot of credit for certain moments. There are scenes in this movie where Wright literally darkens the entire room and essentially shines a spotlight on Gary Oldman. He just lets him go like a wind up monkey.
This isn’t the biggest lock ever, but Oldman is a heavy favorite. Not only is the performance vintage Oscar, but his biggest challenger is a twenty-two-year-old kid going up against the seasoned veteran who played Winston Churchill.
Oldman losing would be a real shocker.
Chances of Winning: High
Is the Performance Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
Out of all the acting nominations in any of the four categories, this is the only one I have a hard time agreeing with. Are you kidding me? Roman J. Israel? Come on.
Look, Denzel is one of the greatest actors who ever lived. He should probably have four Oscars by now, but this movie flat out stinks. I get the argument of something can still be Oscar worthy in a bad film. Absolutely true. I have no problem with Suicide Squad winning last year for Best Make-up, nor do I have an issue with Transformer movies being nominated for Sound and Visual Effect awards.
Denzel does a good job, as he always does, but there’s nothing special here. I would have given this spot to Tom Hanks for The Post.
Even though you get riveting scenes like Roman buying bacon flavored doughnuts, this performance simply doesn’t scream Oscar.
Chances of Winning: Low
Is the Performance Worthy of an Oscar? No
