Welcome back to The Pop Break’s third annual Oscar predictions series. Like the previous two years, the site’s film editor, and Oscar guru Daniel Cohen, takes a deep dive into the major races, and examines not only who might walk away with the Oscar on March 4, but the realistic chances of everyone else nominated.
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
When you break down the IMDB of Paul Thomas Anderson, this guy has had a sneaky spectacular career. We’ll let Inherent Vice slide. He’s also been nominated eight times. Eight! None of the directors on this list have won an Oscar, but out of all these names, Anderson fits the “he’s due” tag more than any of them. Even Nolan. While Anderson has no chance of winning, his nomination here was a true shocker. While this may have been the most unlikely nomination out of all the major categories, he absolutely deserves to be here.
The more I think about Phantom Thread, the more I love it. It really leaves an impact on you. Yes, it has three great actors working at an elite level, but it’s Paul Thomas Anderson who adds that extra layer to the film, making it truly special. He got this nomination because he took a very complicated character driven movie and put an epic feel to it. That’s what he does best. Phantom Thread got a plethora of nominations because all the elements are working at a very high level. That’s all Anderson.
This won’t be his night, but it’s safe to say the Academy loves this guy. He’ll get there someday.
Chances of Winning: Low
Is the Direction Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
It’s always tough for a director to put their stamp on a coming of age story. It’s usually the script and actors who get recognized. Despite all that, Gerwig was able to add a very distinct and unique style to this movie. I’ve said it a hundred times – Lady Bird is a better Juno.
What irritates me about Juno is how cartoon-ish it feels at times. The dialogue and indie film-isms are shoved in your face. Quirky. Quirky. Quirky. It’s all about being quirky. This was my fear going into Lady Bird, but Greta Gerwig doesn’t do that. It’s not about cheap lines and what rock bands are cool. It’s actually about characters. Greta Gerwig focused that energy flawlessly, which is why you get the performances from Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf that you do.
The film is also crisply edited. I’m surprised it didn’t get an editing nomination.
Does Greta Gerwig have a glimmer of hope at winning this award? Yes, but for a standard coming of age story to win Best Director would be really shocking, even if this formula is as good as it’s ever been.
Win or lose, Greta Gerwig will be here again.
Chances of Winning: Middle of the Pack
Is the Direction Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
In the entire universe, there’s Christopher Nolan, and everybody else:
People have left this category for dead. I get it. Del Toro won the DGA and BAFTA. The Shape of Water has a gazillion nominations. I don’t care.
I’m not giving up the fight.
Everyone in this category does a remarkable job, but what Nolan achieves is something truly unique. Yeah, it’s a war movie. We’ve seen those many times before. Out of all these nominees though, Dunkirk elicits a near two-hour long reaction where the moviegoer is literally on the edge of their seat. There are no breaks. There are no breathers. The movie is pure tension and shaking for the entire film. If that’s not worthy of Best Director, I don’t know what it is.
The movie has been criticized for characters taking a back seat. I disagree. This is what makes Nolan such a talented filmmaker. Despite the technical marvel, he still incorporates a psychological edge that could make for its own fantastic short film. Cillian Murphy, Mark Rylance, Barry Keoghan and Tom Glynn-Carney have criminally gone under the radar for what happens on that boat.
Let’s not forget about Kenneth Branagh’s commanding performance, or Tom Hardy’s gut-wrenching turn as a pilot. How can you not be fully invested in that character from beginning to end?
This has all of Nolan’s trademark time bending shenanigans. The amount he’s able to pack into this film in under two hours is incredible. While he’s lost all the awards leading up to this, the Oscars may finally be his day. Remember, Dunkirk is projected to win some of the technical categories, including Best Editing, which speaks volumes to Nolan’s chances at Directing. Now that all the branches, which include sound guys and editors, are able to vote for Nolan, the tides may shift in his favor, as many see Dunkirk as the purest and most well-crafted film of the bunch.
Del Toro is the front-runner, but to call this a lock is absolutely ridiculous.
Chances of Winning: High
Is the Direction Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
I don’t think it’s possible to have a better directorial debut than Jordan Peele did with Get Out. He’s come a long way from the guy who’s credited in Weird Al’s “White & Nerdy” music video. It feels like Get Out came out ten years ago because we’ve been talking about it for so long. Let’s really break down what Get Out has achieved.
This was some random horror movie that came out last February. It was made for peanuts. Now it’s accumulated over $176 million domestically and could legitimately win Best Picture of the year. Incredible. And it’s all because of this man – Jordan Peele. You can tell from his reactions on social media that he truly can’t believe this has happened.
What impressed me so much about Peele’s direction is he takes a genre that’s never about characters and made it exactly that. It’s entertaining as all hell. Even in horror films that people really love, such as The Cabin in the Woods, that movie is all about gimmicks. Gimmicks. Gimmicks. Gimmicks.
Get Out is real drama. It’s funny. Unnerving. Mysterious. And yes, scary. What Peele achieves in his first feature is absolutely ridiculous.
While Get Out could take Best Picture, Peele’s path to victory is a long shot. As good as the film is, the ending is a tad rushed, and the fact there’s no editing nomination is a bad sign. Not out of the realm of possibility, but Peele is probably running fourth in this category.
Chances of Winning: Middle of the Pack
Is the Direction Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
When it comes to the Academy Awards, my top pick doesn’t have to win. I just want someone worthy of the award to take it and I’ll be happy. Del Toro’s work in The Shape of Water is perfectly solid. In a category packed with above and beyond directing from all the other candidates, it’s a little irritating he’s the one who’s probably going to win.
Is this really the best directed movie of the year? Come on.
I’ll give del Toro this – there’s a few individual sequences in The Shape of Water that are truly brilliant. The dream sequence with Sally Hawkins, and some of the water scenes with Hawkins and the creature do leave me spellbound. I admit that. At the end of the day though, I’m just not blown away.
What helps del Toro a lot in this category is that he has three actors nominated. That’s a big factor he has over his biggest competitor, Nolan, who has none. Let’s not forget though that the actual creature is the most underwhelming character in the whole movie. That’s a problem.
It goes back to what I said in my review for The Shape of Water – it’s a good movie. I enjoyed it. It’s just not great. My reservations with del Toro winning this award is that I feel the director’s imprint with the other choices. I do at times with del Toro.
Chances of Winning: High
Is the Direction Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
