Marvel Studios’ BLACK PANTHER..Black Panther/T’Challa (Chadwick Boseman)..Ph: Film Frame..©Marvel Studios 2018Today is the day. Oscar Sunday. The Super Bowl for cinephiles. The Wrestlemania of pop culture.
2018 at the movies was one of the wildest, most mind-boggling, and most surprising years in a long time. It was a year that saw great strides being made, as well as massive steps backwards — in every facet of the industry.
This chaos is perfectly crystallized by the Best Picture nominees this year. It’s a mix of everything positive, and everything negative about Hollywood right now. And that’s why it’s been so hard to pinpoint exactly what movie is going to take home the golden statue tonight. Amongst our own staff we have five different films picked for possible Best Picture winners. It’s literally anyone’s ball game at this point.
However, I believe there is one film that is going to emerge from Sunday’s awards ceremony as Best Picture — Black Panther.
I have four reasons why this film is going to walk away with the biggest prize in all of film tonight.
1. Controversy Free: Heading into the Oscar nominations Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody, were two films with gargantuan momentum. However, the surrounding controversies on both films may have made it tough for voters to give their stamp of approval on either as Best Picture. Bohemian Rhapsody has definitely plummeted from grace in the Best Picture race due to The Atlantic’s piece on director Bryan Singer, poorly received press interviews, and the backlash against the film’s depiction of Freddie Mercury’s sexuality. To me, Bohemian now has an ultra thin chance at winning this award.
Green Book has been hit with a lot of controversies since its release — #MeToo issues, racial issues, and authenticity issues. While the film has lost some steam, it is still racking up wins, especially a coveted Producer’s Guild Award for Best Picture. However, with all these issues, and a deluge of negative commentary from the media definitely dampens the film’s strong chances. While it’s not out of the running, Green Book has a bit of an uphill battle to get the win.
In my mind, voters will probably feel at ease handing acting wins to Rami Malek, and Mahershala Ali, and possibly a technical award or two to Bohemian Rhapsody.
2. Popularity: Popularity should have nothing to do with a Best Picture win, right? Well, that’s not always the case. Let’s not forget that the Academy tried instituting a “popular film” award this year. We’ve seen plenty a blockbusters win the award in the past, and Black Panther was a runaway hit this year.
But why should this matter in 2018? Smaller movies like Spotlight, and Moonlight took Best Picture over more high profile films in their respective years, right? Well, unlike those years, this isn’t exactly the strongest, most clear year for Best Picture nominees. There isn’t a runaway, prototypical Oscar film this year. If there was, we wouldn’t be guessing who’s going to win the award.
Black Panther was a universally loved film that pretty much the entire world saw. The billions of dollars it made at the box office prove that. And this is what hurts films like Vice, Roma, Blackkklansman, and The Favourite. These films have received mostly positive reviews, and have won awards. However, have most Academy voters seen these films? Roma came out late in 2018, and was a three hour movie that could be viewed mainly on Netflix. Blackkklansman made a nice profit with only $48.6 million domestically, but was released in August — not exactly a massive box office juggernaut. The Favourite, which is still in theaters, is currently around $31.7 million. Again, a tremendous success against a small budget, but it’s nothing compared to Panther. Vice has inched its way to $46 million, not making back its supposed budget of $60 million.
Simply put, more people have seen, and apparently liked Black Panther than these four films I’ve mentioned combined. To me, that means more votes will be coming the way of Black Panther due to the fact more people have laid eyes upon it.
3. Memorability: Black Panther, even outside of the awards, is still a highly talked about and regarded film. This film has stuck with me more than any other film of 2018, and given the fact I don’t see many films, that’s saying something. I can vividly recall the majority of Black Panther, a film I saw a year ago, more than Vice which I saw two months ago. This film has staying power, and staying power is important when it comes to Academy voting. They’ve got to see a lot of films, and the ones that stick are the ones that are going to be voted for.
4. Random Gut Feelings: These are theories as to why I believe Black Panther has an edge on certain films.
Roma is one of the top contenders for Best Picture. However, it’s also nominated for Best Foreign Language Film. I can easily see voters giving Roma that award along with technical awards (cinematography for sure) rather than Best Picture.
The slam dunk momentum A Star is Born had in the fall is deader than dead. No Director nod for Cooper. Gaga is going to lose to Glenn Close. Cooper is going to lose to Malek or possibly Bale. It’ll win Best Song for sure, but the lack of juice this film has going into the big night is astonishing. Maybe it’s the “fourth remake” factor, but this has no shot.
The same lack of love the Academy has for Cooper this year, cannot compare to the love towards Spike Lee. Lee received an Honorary Oscar in 2015 — but has only been nominated twice before. He was nominated for Best Original Screenplay for Do the Right Thing, and Best Documentary for 4 Little Girls. Nothing for Malcolm X, She’s Gotta Have It, 25th Hour, Inside Man, or literally anything else he’s done. Can’t see them going for Blackkklansman all of a sudden.
In closing…
Black Panther, for all these reasons, could win Best Picture tonight. Yes, there are things going against it. No screenplay nomination. No director nomination. No acting nominations. No producer or director’s guild awards. It’s a comic book/super hero movie. It’s produced by Disney. Yes, there are lots of reasons why it may not win. However, when you stack this film up in every category — box office, memorability, lack of controversy, a slew of technical nominations, and the fact it is the FIRST comic book movie to receive a Best Picture nomination — we could see history happen tonight.
