I’d like to open this week’s Box Office Predictions column with a quote from last week’s Box Office Predictions column:
“Cut me a break. I needed a warm-up. A pre-season game, if you will.”
Yup. That’s right. As last week was a pre-season game, my terrible, awful, atrocious predictions don’t count, so we can move on, right?
No. No. No. It’s important we learn from our mistakes, so before we go into this weekend, we have to recap last week, unfortunately.
Okay, I had two horrific predictions, so let’s get to it. First off, a movie I didn’t even mention, reference, or acknowledge that finished #2 was One Piece Film: Red, a new anime movie directed by Gorō Taniguchi. Before I get skewered by the anime community, I just want to say that I was fully aware of this film’s existence, I swear. The only reason I didn’t give it the time of day is because I THOUGHT it was opening in limited release only. I had no clue it was getting a wide release, but that’s on me. No excuses. I got to do better.
Moving onto Armageddon Time, which was my next terrible prediction.
Here’s what I predicted: #3 at $3.2 Million
Here’s what actually happened: #12 at $792,760
Yeah, I don’t know what happened here. I blindly saw it was in wide release and that it had a high-profile cast, so I just spat out a number. While technically in wide release, it was only in 1,006 theaters. Is it a flop? Honestly, I have no clue. It could expand more and more every week for the next three months or something, so who knows. It’s one of those movies.
This time of year is always confusing because movies have Limited Releases. Mid-Limited Releases. Mid-Limited Releases in select cities only. Wide Release, but only in theaters where there’s a Dominos and Subway in the Mall. Then Wide Release, but only if The New Jersey Devils win by three goals against the Seattle Kraken or something, I don’t know. Whatever.
Bottom-line: Nobody cares about this movie right now. We’re moving on.
Before we get to the main event, one movie I have to mention is The Banshees of Inisherin, from director Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, In Bruges). This film is only in 895 theaters, but came in at #7 with a $2.1 Million dollar haul. That’s ridiculous. That’s like if the Gordon Bombay coached Mighty Ducks beat the Pittsburgh Penguins. And not even the D2 or D3 Mighty Ducks. I’m talking about the first movie where they barely knew how to play hockey.
In all seriousness, I’m thrilled to see that, because it’s actually a fantastic movie, and possibly my favorite of 2022 so far. Quick plug — if it’s playing near you, go see it.
Alright, let’s get to it. It’s time to break down what could possibly be the highest grossing film of 2022 not called Top Gun: Maverick. And I guess if everything breaks right, it could even give that a run for its money. We are of course talking about Morbius 2, I mean Marvel’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. I cannot for the life of me get a read on this film. Is it going to be successful? Uh, yeah. That’s not the question. The question is how successful, and how good will this actually be?
As someone who’s been a long-time critic of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, there are a handful of MCU movies I passionately like, and 2018’s Black Panther is one of them. Here are the modest accomplishments of the first movie — it made over $700 Million domestically, $1.3 Billion worldwide, won three Academy Awards, and earned the distinct honor of being the first superhero film ever nominated for Best Picture.
Yeah. Not too shabby. As everybody knows, this movie is sadly without its main star from the first film, Chadwick Boseman, after he suddenly passed away in 2020. This puts it in a very tough spot, but all accounts are that the film honors him well, and with returning director Ryan Coogler, it’s easy to feel optimistic about the film’s chances.
With that said, I still can’t get a read on this movie. I can’t help but feel “eh” from the trailers, and honestly, the released clips are kind of bad. I’m sure that statement won’t piss off MCU fans at all. Yeah, I’m totally not walking into an avalanche.
It looks like a very well-acted action movie. There’s nothing wrong with that, but unfortunately an above average action movie will be considered a disappointment. That’s the price of hyper success. And yes, I know the online reactions coming out of the premiere were crazy and over the top, but those are from the Marvel sycophants, so I take absolutely no stock in those whatsoever. They can leave me the hell alone.
At the end of the day, this could be the best movie of 2022 and get nominated for 12 Academy Awards, or it could be ridiculously successful, perfectly solid, but not regarded as well as the first movie, and that’s it. As far as the opening weekend box office is concerned, let’s take a gander.
The first Black Panther made $202 Million its opening weekend. Could it do that again? Absolutely. Could it do even better? You bet. Having said that, $200 Million feels like a high bar right now. The marketing has been a little last-minute blitz, whereas the anticipation of the first movie felt like a methodical yearlong buildup. The argument would be this is a well-established property now, so you don’t need as big a push, but I just don’t feel the “OMFG $200 MILION DOLLAR OPENING WEEKEND” vibes. There’s also another factor here, and I’m about to irritate Marvel fans, so this will be fun.
The best opening weekend of 2022 so far is Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness at $187.4 Million back in May. Very impressive, but a mixed reaction by MCU standards. The next MCU movie was Thor: Love and Thunder, which opened less at $144.2 Million. That matters. That signals to me there’s some souring on the MCU. Let me be very clear about this, because I know people are going to flip out at that statement.
Even with box office down ticks and more mixed reaction from critics and audiences then they’re used to, the MCU is still the biggest behemoth in pop culture today. No question. ALL I’m saying is that Thor, a PRIMARY MCU character who was coming off a BELOVED third movie in Thor: Ragnarok, decreased by over $40 Million from the last MCU’s opening weekend. It’s fair to take that into account when evaluating this next MCU movie.
Now having said that, I know Black Panther is a different ball of wax. This is a sequel to a MASSIVELY important film that was a milestone of the genre. I get it. It’s going to do exceptionally well. It’s going to pass a billion dollars worldwide. No question. I just don’t see it having BONKERS ENDGAME BOX OFFICE, OSCAR NOMINATIONS EVERYWHERE, GAME CHANGER type accolades. That’s all. So everybody relax.
HOW WILL IT ALL BREAKDOWN…
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will garner the best opening weekend of 2022 (for now), but I’m sticking to my guns – it will not cross $200 Million. I’m going to determine its box office scientifically.
Let’s take 2018’s Black Panther opening with Doctor Strange’s sequel opening and average the two. You get $194.7 Million. What the hell, let’s call it an even $195 out of respect for Ryan Coogler, and there you go.
Quick Side Note: Just so I don’t get One Piece Film: Red all over again, I’m ACKNOWLEDGING that the new Steven Spielberg movie, and current Oscar front runner The Fabelmans is opening this weekend, but that truly is in limited release. I don’t see it cracking the top five yet, but I’m mentioning it just in case.
There. I mentioned it. Leave me in peace.
1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — $195 Million
2. Black Adam — $10.3 Million
3. Ticket to Paradise — $5.9 Million
3. One Piece Film: Red — $5.2 Million
5. Smile — $2.9 Million
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