daniel cohen gives us some early thoughts on possible nominees …
It’s Oscar time! Well, not really. The Academy Awards are still a ways away, but the year is almost over. And even though there are a lot of Academy friendly movies that have yet to be released — J. Edgar, The Artist, War Horse — I thought I’d give an early take at what looks like the legit contenders so far. Let the ridiculously early analysis begin!
First of all, a little house cleaning. If you don’t know, last June the Best Picture nomination process was changed yet again. As we all remember two years ago, the field was changed from five to 10. Well, here are the new rules: Now a film most receive at least 5 percent of the first-place votes to be considered. This means we could see up to five to 10 nominees. I don’t want to dwell on this rule change too much, but bottom-line: I like it better than the 10 nominees, but still think the Academy should just get it right with the original five. Alright, with that settled … onto actual movie discussion.
It’s been a pretty damn good year, but time will tell if it outdoes last year. We still have plenty to go. After looking at all the films released so far, I believe the following movies have a legit shot at getting nominated for Best Picture: Midnight In Paris, Harry Potter And the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes, Drive, Moneyball, Warrior, The Help, and The Ides Of March.
The Doubtfuls: While I think Nick Nolte’s performance in Warrior is a lock for a Supporting Actor nomination, that’s probably it. In terms of what the Academy looks for, Warrior is barely there, but the fact that it came and went at the box office hurts it significantly. This needed a box-office boost to get it more attention. Unfortunately for me, Drive suffers from the same problem. I think it’s more Academy friendly than Warrior, but it didn’t get enough box-office attention. Nicolas Winding Refn has a good chance for a Best Director nod, and normally I would say Ryan Gosling for Best Actor, but I’m sure he’ll get one for Ides Of March instead. As for Apes, it barely got on my ‘legit contender list,’ but at the same time, I could see it getting a little buzz.
The Maybes: Moneyball is a solid all-around Oscar bait movie. Strong performances, solid direction, high critical praise, and maybe even a Best Acting nod for Brad Pitt. The subject matter doesn’t scream Oscar, but I could see Academy members latching onto it. There always seems to be one quirky/clever comedy, and Woody Allen’s Midnight In Paris seems like it will fill that void, and it even did well at the box office. Its biggest hurdle is being forgotten about at Oscar time as it was released in the summer. Then there’s The Help. I know it seems like The Help is a mortal lock, and it’s definitely up for a plethora of acting nods, most notably Viola Davis as the lead. But I just feel like this is going to get forgotten about as we get more Oscar potential movies later in the year.
The Locks: Call me crazy, but I think Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 is a lock to be nominated for Best Picture. Here’s why: I can’t imagine the shit storm the Academy will get if this is left in the dust. It’s the ending to the biggest film franchise in the history of cinema. If the Academy leaves it out, it will be The Dark Knight all over again. Potter will Avada Kedavra it’s way onto that ballet somehow. David Yates will get a directing nod, Steve Kloves will get a screenwriting nod, and Alan Rickman has a slim chance for a Best Supporting Actor nod. But as of right now, I think The Ides Of March is in the driver’s seat. It’s a well-acted political thriller directed by George Clooney. In the end, I think something else will take the lead later in the year, but as of today, it’s at the top of the leader board.
The Potentials: There are still a lot of big Oscar movies waiting to be seen. The most obvious one is J. Edgar. It’s a biopic starring Leonardo DiCaprio and directed by Clint Eastwood — it’s getting nominated. There’s also War Horse, a historical Steven Spielberg-directed film centering on World War I, and it’s about a horse … total Oscar bait. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo will fill the morbid/psychological slot, and maybe even get a ‘make-up call’ Oscar for Director David Fincher after losing out to last year’s winner Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech). Other quick potentials include Hugo (it’s Scorsese), Carnage (it’s Roman Polanski paired with Kate Winslet), and The Artist (black-and-white, silent film, and a festival darling).
So there’s my very early analysis. Whatever happens, it should be an interesting race this year. My dark horse is The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn — Part 1
GET A JOB SIR