Written by Brandon Hoffman
New Japan Pro-Wrestling’s yearly single elimination tournament, the New Japan Cup, begins on March 4, 2026. The brackets have been officially revealed and 24 men will compete in this year’s tournament with some heavy hitting names hoping to win it all.
Who should win this year’s New Japan Cup? Will the brackets flow along either begrudgingly or smoothly? As an avid NJPW fan since Wrestle Kingdom 12, here is what should be the reality for this year’s bracket.
Immediate Thoughts:
After seeing the brackets posted on NJPW’s website, it has become clear of the contract status of a few notable wrestlers. It was a big deal with see Hiromu Takahashi and Katsuya Murashima leave the company on New Beginning in Osaka, but there are other notable names not here.
Firstly, David Finlay is not in this tournament, seemingly confirming his tearful goodbye after his New Beginning in Osaka match against Callum Newman. Next, dual-contracted Konosuke Takeshita is missing from this tour. Obviously, Takeshita’s commitments to All Elite Wrestling in America could be more important than this tournament. However, with Takeshita wrestling El Phantasmo on New Beginning USA coming up on Feb. 27, I find it hard to believe that Takeshita doesn’t have the time to partake in his potentially first Cup.
Finally, both Gabe Kidd and Andrade El Idolo are absent from this bracket. Much like Takeshita, there are commitments to AEW from both peeps. No statuses broke out in the wrestling news over Gabe Kidd’s contract, but a top Gaijin being omitted from this tournament does open my eyes in a bad way. Also, Andrade’s literally challenging for the IWGP Global Title in New Beginning USA, he really should be here.
The overall star power in this year’s Cup is diminished compared to last year’s, but that also means it’s the prime time for NJPW to pull a trigger on someone. There’s a slew of great, graduated Young Lions like Ryohei Oiwa and Yuya Uemura who are ready for a main event spot. The less said about Ren Narita and the House of Torture the better, though.
Speaking of the House of Torture, it is so annoying to see New Japan’s thinned roster be the cause for Don Fale and Chase Owens’s existence in the Cup. Also, Yujiro Takahashi of all people has a BYE, which is the most hysterical thing that has happened in New Japan since Ren Narita squashed Aaron Wolf. Too soon?
The biggest “favorite” according to the storyline narrative of his second chapter is Shota Umino, and he is definitely not the right choice to win the whole thing. It is the most cliche thing to see that “he needs to find himself first” … but he really needs his own image. Stealing mannerisms and styles from generations past does not make him an automatic fan favorite. The usually polite crowd lets him know about it too; it’s quite saddening.
New Japan Cup Full Bracket Predictions:
First Round: Some winners are incredibly obvious due to some stablemates needing to be beaten to set up for the second round.
- Yuya Uemura def. Great-O-Khan
- Aaron Wolf def. Don Fale
- Ren Narita def. Taichi
- Boltin Oleg def. El Phantasmo
- Jake Lee def. YOSHI-HASHI
- Callum Newman def. OSKAR
- Shota Umino def. Chase Owens
- Ryohei Oiwa def. Yuto-Ice
Having the final first round match being Yuto v. Yuya is such a shame because that means someone has to lose. Sorry Yuto. Some individual matches like Newman v. OSKAR and the aforementioned Yuto v. Yuya should be the standouts in the first round. Hopefully, Aaron Wolf can bounce back against his NEVER Openweight Title loss by squashing Don Fale. That would be awesome to see.
Second Round: This is where the division starts to happen with the “perfect bracket” predictions. There are quite a few matches where either guy could realistically win.
- Yuya Uemura def. Drilla Moloney
- Aaron Wolf def. Shingo Takagi
- Ren Narita def. Tomohiro Ishii
- Boltin Oleg def. HENARE
- Hirooki Goto def. Jake Lee
- Callum Newman def. Hartley Jackson
- Shota Umino def. Yujiro Takahashi
- Zack Sabre Jr. def. Ryohei Oiwa
It would be pretty bold of Aaron Wolf to beat Shingo Takagi in his fourth ever singles match, but Wolf did win the NEVER Openweight Title in his first one after all. Narita and Oleg both advancing to a match against each other can advance the Hontai v. House of Torture storyline, even though an Ishii v. Oleg rematch would be nice.
Newman advancing and Jake Lee not would also put over the momentum Newman’s riding after beating David Finlay convincingly. Also, another Umino v. Zack rematch. I don’t think people will get tired of it as long as it’s good. It’s just worrying that Zack v. Oiwa has the potential to be miles better than Umino’s Quarter-Final match.
Quarter Finals: If the direction of the finalists weren’t apparent, I’m aiming to put my faith in people under the age of 35. It must be truly freeing to have a company’s future filled with wrestlers who have a ton left in the tank.
- Yuya Uemura def. Aaron Wolf
- Ren Narita def. Boltin Oleg
- Callum Newman def. Hirooki Goto
- Shota Umino def. Zack Sabre Jr.
Wolf would demonstrate his abilities against a litany of different opponents, but he’d come up short against the technically sound Uemura. That Quarter-Final spot would be the perfect way to make Wolf strong again for his first NJPW tournament. Narita beating Oleg isn’t ideal, but if there’s anything I’ve learned after watching New Japan for years, it’s that the House usually wins.
Newman beating Goto seems like the biggest no-brainer in the Quarters, as much I love Hirooki Goto. Putting a new heel leader in such a high position would be a great way to revive United Empire’s slow descent from before Wrestle Kingdom 20. Umino beating Zack wouldn’t be a popular crowd choice, but we need something to go Umino’s way after he lost the IWGP Tag Title match alongside Uemura.
Semi-Finals: Representation across the board from pure heels like Narita and Newman, and pure hearted babyfabes like Uemura and Umino. The future of the Lion Mark is looking promising!
- Yuya Uemura def. Ren Narita
- Callum Newman def. Shota Umino
The NEVER Openweight Champion Ren Narita making the finals would be the kickstart to endless nightmares of the faithful fans. Therefore, the Heat Storm winning the day is yet another no-brainer for me. Hopefully Narita can stop wrestling like he would rather be doing anything else, and show off his in-ring skill. He has a ton of ability and potential that a lot of people seem to forget about, most likely because a pre-HoT Narita seems like a long gone memory in 2026.
This is where my predictions become a coin flip, because Umino winning would only make sense if he turned heel in the finals against Uemura. NJPW doesn’t do Face v. Face finals in tournaments, and I don’t believe NJPW wants to turn Umino to the dark side just yet. This is especially since Callum Newman’s already a supercharged heel tasked with flagbearing a vicious United Empire. It would also serve as motivation for Uemura to try and win if Newman beat Umino beforehand.
Finals: This is genuinely the biggest tossup. Either Uemura or Newman could walk away with the win with no complaints from me. When it comes to the immediate future and who would challenge Yota Tsuji for the IWGP Heavyweight Title, this one would be a fair shout.
- Callum Newman def. Yuya Uemura
It’s sad, Uemura absolutely deserves the New Japan Cup win after being lumbered with polarizing tag team reactions thanks to being associated with Umino. But if United Empire wants to be revitalized with a new fearless leader, this is the best way to do it. Champion Tsuji versus challenger Newman for Sakura Genesis is a perfect face v. heel dynamic to sell to the crowd as well.
My heart really wants either Yuya Uemura or Ryohei Oiwa to win this one, but the logical next challenger for Yota Tsuji should be a top heel in the company. That heel certainly shouldn’t be Jake Lee or Yujiro Takahashi, god forbid. Hopefully with this New Japan Cup win, people can stop comparing Callum Newman to former Empire leader Will Ospreay. Can’t wait to see some of these matches!
