Bold Box Office Predictions: May 1-3, 2015
Notable Openings This Weekend: Avengers: Age of Ultron
Open the gates and unleash the summer movie season, we have arrived. I’ve been away from Box Office Predictions for a while, but that’s because I’ve been on a remote island quietly reflecting on the summer, where these predictions actually matter. Besides, how many times can you write, “Furious 7 will be #1 again.” I sought out a master who gave me the secrets to accurately predicting opening weekends, so I’m ready to go! What I can say for certain this weekend is that Furious 7 will not 5-peat. Let’s dive right into what may be the biggest opening weekend in the history of cinema.
Avengers: Age of Ultron – kind of a big deal. The first movie was certainly projected to do well, but nobody could have predicted the godlike weekend of just over $207 Million. That was completely absurd, but this sequel just might top it. The film has already exceeded its production budget, and it hasn’t even opened in what is sure to be its biggest market. Wow. What else is there to say at this point? Marvel Studios is a beast that cannot be contained. There’s no doubt this is going to reach record breaking numbers, but will it beat the original’s total?
At the end of the day, I’m going to say no. And let’s be clear about this – that’s nothing to sneeze at. There’s just enough here to keep it from beating the all time record. First of all, the reviews have been fine, but not glowing. The fact that people aren’t seeing that goliath 90+ Rotten Tomato score will scare some from running to the theater in the opening weekend melee. They’ll wait a week or two. The other factor is at some point there’s going to be Marvel/superhero fatigue. The first one was an event that everyone had to see. I find it hard to believe there aren’t going to be some moviegoers who finally say, “Enough already! Stop shoving this in my face!” Having said all that though, it’s going to be close.
HOW WILL IT ALL BREAK DOWN…
Avengers: Age of Ultron will still break $200 Million, but it falls short of beating its predecessor’s record. Could I look like a fool? Perhaps. But that’s what my gut tells me. For crying out loud, a $200 Million opening weekend is still pretty damn good! Geez!
1. Avengers: Age of Ultron — $203 Million
2. Furious 7 — $10 Million
3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 — $8.5 Million
4. The Age of Adaline — $7 Million
5. Home — $4 Million
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Daniel Cohen is the Film Editor for Pop-Break. Aside from reviews, Daniel does a weekly box office predictions column, and also contributes monthly Top Tens and Op-Ed’s on all things film. Daniel is a graduate of Bates College with a degree in English, and also studied Screenwriting at UCLA. He can also be read on www.movieshenanigans.com. His movie crush is Jessica Rabbit. Follow him on Twitter @dcohenwriter.
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