Welcome back to The Pop Break’s third annual Oscar predictions series. Like the previous two years, the site’s film editor, and Oscar guru Daniel Cohen, takes a deep dive into the major races, and examines not only who might walk away with the Oscar on March 4, but the realistic chances of everyone else nominated.
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Mudbound was a tough movie for acting choices based on the simple fact there were so many to consider. Mary J. Blige’s nomination here is very impressive. While other performances from Mudbound stand out more, such as Jason Mitchell or Carey Mulligan, I’m not surprised Blige was singled out, as she is the true emotional core of the film. As the mother to Mitchell’s character who returns home from war, she’s tasked with holding the weight of the world on her shoulders.
The reason Blige got nominated will also be the reason she loses. It’s an understated performance that is very powerful, and more times than not, those always lose to a showstopper, which this category certainly has.
Best Supporting Actress is a two-horse race, but if I had to pick a dark horse, it would be Blige. Out of all the nominees, her role is arguably the most challenging.<
Chances of Winning: Middle of the Pack
Is the Performance Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xucHiOAa8Rs&t=1s
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
This category is still in question, but it’s slowly becoming a runaway for Janney. It’s all there on the screen. This is J.K. Simmons/Whiplash-esque. As Tonya Harding’s mother, she’s the ultimate curmudgeon. In every single scene, she elicits a strong emotional reaction from the audience. Her bite chews through the entire theater.
Aside from being hilarious, she’s also a horrible human being, especially towards the end. This shows Janney isn’t just playing a blissfully comedic role you love to hate who blows smoke across the screen with a bird on her shoulder, but by the end, you truly despise her. This rounds out the performance nicely.
The reasons for Allison Janney being the front-runner are the same reasons why most actors end up winning Oscars: Out of all the nominees on this list, Janney is the most memorable. By far.
Chances of Winning: High
Is the Performance Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_weoC3HT6Q
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Whether it was Michael Shannon last year, Laura Dern for Wild, or Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street a few years ago, there’s always one acting nominee that comes out of nowhere. Enter Lesley Manville. To toot my own horn though, I did have Manville as a dark horse in my nomination predictions.
Phantom Thread offers three stellar performances, but Manville’s might be the most challenging. As Reynolds Woodcock, Daniel Day-Lewis is the most difficult person to deal with of all time. If you breath on his eggs wrong, he’s going to give you a look of death that frightens the whole room. As his sister, Lesley Manville is tasked with shutting his idiosyncrasies down, and putting him in his place. She matches Lewis’ intensity beautifully. She’s more nerve-racking to deal with, but subtle about it. That’s why she’s nominated.
Manville has no chance of winning, but this is a sneaky great performance, and a great call by the Academy. We always complain about the people who get snubbed, but for once, let’s celebrate the underdog nominee that no one expected.
Chances of Winning: Low
Is the Performance Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
When I saw Lady Bird, one of the first thoughts I had was Laurie Metcalf will probably win the Oscar. She still might. While Lady Bird is obviously Saoirse Ronan’s movie, Metcalf is the Awards stand out. The biggest problem she has is that the role isn’t as showy as Allison Janney. There’s enough evidence in the performance though as to why you can’t count her out just yet.
Metcalf is tough as nails. She clearly loves her daughter to the ends of the earth, but has difficulty showing it, juxtaposed to her husband who’s more emotional and light-hearted. Within the family, she’s usually on the losing side of an argument, not wanting her daughter to get her hopes up on attending an East Coast college due to all the obstacles that stand in her way. The mere thought of her applying to these schools infuriates her. This comes from a place of wanting to protect her daughter from disappointment. The challenge is letting that seep through just enough under her tough exterior. Metcalf is extraordinary at this.
(Lady Bird Spoilers Below)
What very well could get Metcalf the win is everyone can easily point out her “Oscar moment.” When Metcalf drives away after dropping Lady Bird off at the airport is where the tough exterior finally breaks apart. It’s a truly remarkable transformation. This performance is very similar to Patricia Arquette in Boyhood, and she won.
Again, Janney is building a nice lead, but the Lady Bird hasn’t sung yet on this category.
Chances of Winning: High
Is the Performance Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
Octavia Spencer is going to be one of those actresses who pumps out Oscar nominations whenever she’s in a movie that comes out in the fourth quarter of the year, ala Amy Adams. Unlike Amy Adams though, she’s already won. Spencer is so likable in everything she does. This is why Academy members will vote for her, almost like a reflex.
Spencer doesn’t do anything special in The Shape of Water, but I can see why she’s nominated. With Sally Hawkins not being able to talk, Spencer has to keep the film going, especially in the beginning. She’s responsible for keeping the entire mood of the movie. It’s a lot of talking. As someone who’s very lukewarm on The Shape of Water, she makes the grey, boring, dingy atmosphere a lot better.
Is there an Oscar moment? Not really. Maybe at the end when Michael Shannon threatens her, but that’s it. She has no chance of winning, but it’s a more important role than you think.
Chances of Winning: Low
Is the Performance Worthy of an Oscar? Yes
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