“I’m telling you right now. I think there’s a real chance The Shape of Water could fall flat on its face come Oscar night.” -Dan Cohen, the popbreak Oscar Predictions Podcast.
Good call, Dan.
Yup. Look, when you dive deep into this stuff, and over think it as I do with the Oscars, the predictions can certainly go awry. Regrets. I have a few. We’ll get to those. Did I get some calls right? Oh, yes. I said Dunkirk would clean up in the technical areas. It did. I told you the acting categories were all locks. They were. And just like everybody else, I predicted Roger A. Deakins would win his first Oscar.
I kind of feel like that scene in Forrest Gump when Forrest just stops running, and that one guy asks, “Now what are we supposed to do?” It’s very similar to when the Cubs won the World Series. The mystique of Roger Deakins not winning Oscars has come to an end.
He’s one of the many topics on the table we’ll discuss. Holy del Toro, we’ve got a lot to cover. I’m also not going to lie to you folks: I’m emotionally drained, but I care about the Oscars too much not to give you all one final wrap up.
For the last time. One last hurrah. Let’s talk Oscars, baby!
The Kimmel of it All
Jimmy Kimmel was perfectly fine. I really don’t have strong feelings about his hosting duties either way. The wrong envelope jokes were obviously going to be front and center right from the start:
“This year, when you hear your name called, don’t get up right away.”
Eh. Not great.
The monologue got better. The ongoing “Christopher Plummer is old” jokes were pretty funny. The Black Panther beating all the Best Picture nominees at the box office gag was also solid.
There were also some misses. A Tonya Harding kneecap joke? Seriously? I know it was relevant this year because of I, Tonya, but we could have done better.
At the end of the day, Kimmel was fine, but more than any other year, I just wanted to get to the awards. Kimmel was a mixed bag, as was the ceremony. Let’s do a quick round up of what worked, and what didn’t:
The Lakeith Stanfield/Get Out Bit: This was pretty funny, especially because of how committed Stanfield was to the bit. This gave me a legit chuckle, which is hard for an awards show to do, as we are prone to overly criticize them.
The Jet Ski Gag Got Stale Fast: When this first came up, it was mildly amusing. Every time they referenced it though, it got worse.
The TCL Chinese Theater Bit Wasn’t Worth It: We’ve done this before. Come on. It was clever when Ellen did something akin to this, but this was essentially a rehash. I’m sure it was awesome for those people to see Gal Gadot and Lupita Nyong’o randomly walk into their screening, but for everybody at home, it just took up time.
I hope the Academy makes an effort next year to limit the shenanigans and allow more time for acceptance speeches. Maybe it’s just me, but I prefer watching the winners react with real emotion, as opposed to the forgettable bits.
The Montages Were Pretty Damn Good: Credit to the Academy for putting together some real great moments here.
First of all, I very much enjoyed how they set up the clips before the acting categories. Kicking it off with J.K. Simmons from Whiplash was awesome.
The montage that was essentially the history of film was also epic as hell. Anytime you can show a clip of The Karate Kid, I’m not going to complain.
Certainly the “Me Too” movement and the topic of equality were very prevalent in Hollywood this year, and the montage that was put together to accompany this was very powerful, in particular the quotes from Kumail Nanjiani (nominated for The Big Sick), which got a very strong reaction. The Military montage and the Oscars thanking men and women in the service was also extremely well done.
Alright, let’s get to it. Award time.
The Appetizers:
Blade Runner 2049 Won 2 Oscars
I’m thrilled about this. With the exception of Logan, Blade Runner 2049 was my favorite movie of last year. As we discuss on our Oscar wrap up podcast, had Blade Runner 2049 made more money and resonated with mainstream audiences, it would have gotten major award nominations.
Having said that, it will always be remembered for Roger Deakins winning his first Oscar, and for that reason, Blade Runner 2049 is immortalized forever.
Looking back on this, there’s no way in hell Deakins was losing this award. It was his night, and bless the man for how humble he was in his acceptance speech. He seems like a guy who genuinely just loves doing what he does, and is simply happy to be there.
For one last time, congrats, Roger. You’ve earned it.
Dunkirk Won Stuff
Yeah, yeah. We’ll get to Nolan.
As this was my favorite movie on the Best Picture list, it’s awesome to see it get three, well-earned awards. I know some are upset Baby Driver didn’t snag one of the sound awards, but Dunkirk was going to be tough to deny in these categories.
I also loved Lee Smith’s line about being an editor, so he should be able to edit his speech. That was funny.
BEST SONG (“Remember Me,” Coco)
I tweeted about this, and also brought it up in our Wrap up Podcast, but is it just me, or does Best Song usually get announced immediately after the last nominee performs? After the show stopping performance that was “This is Me,” I did raise an eyebrow when they went to break, and then dished out Best Score first.
Perhaps it would have been a tad awkward to announce “Remember Me” right after the insane performance that just happened, so they wanted to cool things down. I’m probably over thinking this one.
At the end of the day, the song from Coco was utilized exceptionally well in the context of the film, and that’s why it won.
THE MAIN COURSE
Best Adapted Screenplay (James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name)
This was a no-brainer. If any of the Best Original Screenplay nominees were in this category, it could have been a lot more interesting. I don’t mean that as a slight to Call Me by Your Name, but more a comment on how extraordinary the other Screenplay category was.
This is a great pick. The Michael Stuhlbarg scene alone is just damn good writing. While I wasn’t over the moon about this movie, I’m glad this got a huge win for the people who really are passionate about it.
Best Original Screenplay (Jordan Peele, Get Out)
We’ll get to it soon enough, but I have no regrets about picking Christopher Nolan for Best Director. Predicting Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards over Peele though I do regret. I should have known better.
While I can make the argument that Three Billboards is the better script, Bill Bodkin said it best in the podcast: Get Out is the most original. Yeah, Three Billboards is rich in dialogue that knocks you on your ass, but there was too much going on in Get Out to deny it the award for Best Original Screenplay. It took a formulaic genre and made it anything but formulaic.
While this was the second most intriguing category of the night, in hindsight, Get Out was a clear winner.
Best Supporting Actress (Allison Janney, I, Tonya)
The acting categories were etched in stone weeks ago. While Best Supporting Actress may have been the most prone to an upset, Janney was going to be hard to dethrone here. It’s all there on the script, but Janney takes the character to the highest point you can possibly take it. I know this is a cliché, but she truly loses herself in this character.
While Metcalf’s role in Lady Bird may have been more difficult and subtle, it goes back to what I said in the podcast: Janney’s performance is the most memorable. As someone who’s really championed I, Tonya, I’m thrilled to see it take home a well-deserved major award.
Best Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Many of the Three Billboard detractors don’t like this film because they don’t buy into the arc Rockwell’s character goes through. While this may have hurt the film’s chances in Screenplay and Best Picture, most agree from an acting stand point that Rockwell gives an impressively layered performance.
There are so many stand out moments from Rockwell in the film that it’s hard to keep track. Without spoiling too much, I’m prone to his scene in the bar where he puts himself in harm’s way. You can actually see the character transition. It’s just damn good acting from Rockwell.
Rockwell also gave one of my favorite speeches of the night. I always love to see the winners for these awards show a genuine excitement for movies, and that’s what Rockwell expressed.
Best Actress (Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
This was probably the biggest acting lock of the night in a category that was stacked as hell. The clip they showed for McDormand said it all. While Three Billboards clearly has its naysayers, nobody on planet earth would argue it isn’t a performance for the ages.
When I think back to the two Oscars McDormand has won, the other being for Fargo, they are probably two of the best performances of the last twenty years.
Her speech was also electrifying.
Best Actor (Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour)
Other than Coco for Best Animated Feature, Darkest Hour winning Best Makeup was probably the biggest lock of the night. There’s no question the exquisite makeup job they give Gary Oldman to become Winston Churchill was a significant factor in why he won.
Having said that, Oldman still delivers. While these types of roles are predetermined to win Oscars, you can’t just go through the motions. The same can be said for Daniel Day-Lewis when he won for Lincoln. It seems like a slam dunk Oscar win, but you still got to show up for work.
Ironically, I would have gone with Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread here, but it’s real tough to argue what Gary Oldman accomplished in Darkest Hour.
It’s vintage Oscar.
Best Director (Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water)
Back in July when I wrote my Dunkirk review, I said Christopher Nolan would win Best Director at the Oscars. I didn’t waver once. I stuck with it till the very end. The dream is now over.
I can’t believe how quickly Emma Stone crushed the dream. I didn’t even get a second to reflect. She read del Toro’s name so fast.
There’s no doubt I made this pick with a lot of emotion, but I truly and honestly believed it was going to happen. That’s why I picked it. I don’t need to go on about Dunkirk. We’ve done enough of that.
At the end of the day, the lack of acting nominations was Nolan’s downfall. If he had gotten one actor nominated, he could have pulled it off. As Bill Bodkin said in the podcast, del Toro had everything with this movie. The acting. The story. The visuals. This was inevitable. Guillermo del Toro does a great job. He deserves it.
I have no regrets. If Nolan had won this, but I didn’t pick it, then I really would have regretted it.
Christopher Nolan is my favorite director in Hollywood right now, and the day will come when he wins an Oscar, and it will be glorious.
BEST PICTURE (The Shape of Water)
Well, we’ve come full circle. The Shape of Water won Best Picture. The Academy picked a good movie. Not a great one. This isn’t nearly as mediocre as The King’s Speech, but it was a safe pick. I feel like everyone likes The Shape of Water, but there isn’t a ton of passion behind it either way.
This is probably the reason why Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri didn’t win. It’s one of those movies that people either love, or hate. In a weird way, that’s more of a Best Picture winner, in my opinion. It goes back to what I said in the podcast. This movie sparks debate. It elicits passion. It really affects you. The Shape of Water deserves to win Best Director because of how well it’s made, but as a whole, it’s merely very good. My philosophy on Best Picture is that it should go to a movie that really does leave a lasting impact. Three Billboards does that.
The other movie that certainly does this is Get Out. Right before that envelope was read, I really thought it was going to happen. This is a movie that sparks a ton of passion, but unlike Three Billboards, it is universally loved.
While I stuck with Three Billboards as my official pick, I believed whatever won Best Original Screenplay was going to take Best Picture. Clearly, I was wrong.
Congrats to The Shape of Water. Maybe I’ll grow to like it.
That’s All, Folks!
For a ceremony that provided no upsets, I was riveted till the very end. This was the most intense Best Picture race I can remember in a long time. I really didn’t know what was going to happen right before the correct envelope got read.
That’s going to do it. I literally have nothing left to say on the Oscars.
I’m spent.
P.S. 2019 Best Animated Feature Prediction: Isle of Dogs
