Box Office Predictions: Can mother! or American Assassin Topple IT This Weekend?

NOTABLE OPENINGS THIS WEEKEND: American Assassin, mother!

In case you missed it, this was a live look in at the WB offices after It opened:

Holy vanilla ice cream. We all knew this movie was going to clean up. That was no surprise. Nobody predicted THAT though. $123 Million on a $35 Million production budget? Wow. Think of all the clown cars Pennywise can buy with that money. Well, suffice it say, It will be #1 again this weekend. The question is what will the drop off be? I’m thinking not that much. While It is sure to be tops this weekend, we do have a couple new entries with some serious star power. Let’s get the newbies out of the way though so we can continue to count the pennies in Pennywise’s large red clown shoes.

mother! Okay, first of all, what’s with the exclamation point? Is that actually going to be explained in the movie? I can’t imagine it’s necessary, as exclamation points rarely are.

I’m with Mr. Lippman, but if Darren Aronofsky wants to use it, by all means. I noted in our Fall Preview Podcast that I’m a BIG Darren Aronofsky fan and expressed my excitement for this movie. Having said that, I did say the September release date was a red flag. As Aronofsky and Jennifer Lawrence are usually Oscar magnets, why not release this towards the end of the year? It’s not that the reviews are bad. They’re fine, but Aronofsky usually fares better. And as frustrating as it is, we still might be dealing with a “Ugh, Jennifer Lawrence” factor.

Having said all that, Aronofsky gets people talking. This clearly won’t be heard from again come Oscar time, and while it won’t do gang busters, it has a good chance to beat the other new film, despite opening in less theaters. At the end of the day, Darren will make his impact, as he always does.

Let’s move on to the flopi-rooney. Okay, maybe American Assassin won’t flop, but if this past year has taught us anything it’s that general audiences don’t want generic, boring crap anymore. Yeah, it has Michael Keaton, but he can’t save everything.

What else is there to say? The reviews are bad. It looks whatever. There’s no marketing. No buzz. These types of movies have absolutely no chance any more. You’ll forget about this film by the time you finish this sentence.

HOW WILL IT ALL BREAK DOWN…

It. It. It. It. It. Word of mouth is strong. With “meh” competition this weekend, It should see a strong hold over. If you’re a horror fan, you should be dancing in the sewer drains at what this movie is doing for the genre. With so many epic failures this year like King Arthur and The Dark Tower, low to mid-range horror movies are going to be cranked out at an unprecedented level over the next couple years.

Despite less theaters, mother! will surpass American Assassin.

1. It – $57 Million

2. mother! – $14 Million

3. American Assassin – $11 Million

4. Home Again – $4.5 Million

5. The Hitman’s Bodyguard – $3 Million

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.

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